Congressional Quarterly pundit Craig Crawford -- seen often on Hardball and Countdown on MSNBC -- predicts a Kerry victory Nov. 2:
It's John Kerry's to lose. No flip-flopping here. I think the Democratic nominee will win the presidential election on Nov. 2. I don't even think it will take weeks of recounting to confirm this.
Now, in the grand scheme of things, this means nothing, but in the media echo chamber, perhaps it will help a bit. Especially since Crawford is a Republican (or at least was in the past), according to a column he wrote after Reagan's death:
I was a teenage delegate for Ronald Reagan. I attended the 1976 Republican National Convention as a Reagan groupie hoping to prevent the nomination of President Gerald R. Ford.
More below the fold.
The final phase of this campaign is like projecting the path of a hurricane. I cannot predict its longitude and latitude on Election Day, but I do see the momentum headed in Kerry's direction.
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You will notice a bit of hedging in my opening line. Yes, the Massachusetts senator could find a way to lose. He sometimes has a tin ear for the effect of his words, such as when he said he voted for funding the Iraq war before he voted against it. Not knowing how ridiculous that would sound demonstrated just why he might falter again in the final days.
Putting Kerry's clumsy campaign style aside, I am predicting his victory based on the overwhelming mood for change I've seen around the country.
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The president is so determined to contrast his certitude against Kerry's vacillation that he has left himself no room to appeal to voters who would like to see him make adjustments. Bush would risk looking like a flip-flopper himself if he hinted at planning to try something different in Iraq, to cite the most politically important example, or if he eased off tax cuts so that he could slow the rise of federal budget deficits.
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Forgoing a definitive message of new ideas for a second term makes it difficult for the president to end this campaign by promising a bright future. Instead, his re-election is staked on fear of the future, arguing that a Kerry presidency would put our lives in jeopardy.
Without a forward promise of modest change, Bush allows voters to conclude that keeping him in the White House only brings more of the same.
A fresh start is not much of a mandate for a new president, but it is enough for Kerry to slip into the White House.
Cool, huh? I'd provide a link to the whole thing, but you need to be a special government peep like me and have a password, etc., to CQ.com.