Like some others, I have been slightly freaked out when I have seen Bush close in Hawaii or New Jersey. They are, after all, heavily Democratic states.
Reading a post on Ryan Lizza's Campaign Journal over at TNR, I saw some very good points. Bush and the Republicans have been running cable ads since March of this year. They play throughout the country, not just in selected swing states. The Democrats and Kerry, meanwhile, haven't done nearly as much as Bush and the Republicans. This makes a lot of sense, particular when you consider Rove's objective was to create an aura of inevitability.
I think I definitely agree with these comments: It's a fair point. Moreover, if he's right, then Bush is in real trouble. That is, if Rove's whole strategy was to artificially inflate Bush's lead nationally and then use the momentum from national polls to fuel a Bush sweep of the battleground states, then the fact that Bush is essentially tied in those inflated polls is horrible news for him.
I meant to put this in my last diary about undecideds, but I am stupid and accidentally clicked "delete" instead of save. Oh well, this one is a bit more pleasant, no?