An
article in today's Detroit Free Press has some good looking stats on registrations and expected turnout in Detroit, the suburbs and elsewhere in Michigan. Based on increased registration, enthusiasm and absentee ballot numbers, elections clerks in the Detroit vicinity are predicting a turnout as high as 80% of registered voters. As usual, the Republicans are being much more pessimistic.
There are a lot of factors here in Michigan that would suggest that high turnout favors Kerry. On the other hand, we do have a hate amendment on the ballot, which may bring some of the homophobes to the polls too. BC04 thinks it's still in play, so if you live here, please head to your local Democratic office and lend a hand. I visited mine and they were still looking for more volunteers.
The large number of absentee ballot requests for Tuesday's election leads Michigan elections clerks to predict a big increase in voter turnout compared with the 2000 presidential election.
Many clerks are predicting that up to 80 percent of voters will cast ballots -- a huge number even in a presidential election year.
"I've never seen it so polarized, so intense," said Dennis Tomlinson, the Clinton Township clerk. "I'm predicting a turnout of 75 to 80 percent this
year."
Southfield City Clerk Nancy Banks also is predicting that 80 percent of the city's registered voters will cast ballots in the presidential race pitting President George W. Bush against Democratic Sen. John Kerry. That compares
with the 61 percent of voters from Southfield who voted in the last presidential election.
Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land, a Republican, predicts a lower figure. She said Thursday that about 4.5 million people, or 63 percent of the registered voters in the state, will cast ballots.
That's more than in 2000, when 62 percent of the registered voters, or 4,279,299 people, cast ballots, but far less than the record turnout of 72.7 percent when Democrat John F. Kennedy beat Republican Richard Nixon in 1960. Across the nation, election workers are bracing for as many as 120 million voters, up from 106 million in 2000.
...
Based partly on the new registrations and also on absentee ballot requests, local clerks said Land is underestimating the turnout.
...
A poll released on Wednesday by Republican pollster tony Fabrizio found that voters who registered within the past six months in battleground states favor Kerry over Bush by a whopping 61.8 percent to 29.1 percent.
...
Registered voters in Michigan:
2000: 6,859,332
2004: 7,160,000 (up 4.4%)
Absentee ballot requests:Detroit: Southfield:
2000: 56,000 2000: 8,100
2004: 66,630 (up 18%) 2004: 10,000 (up 23%)
Royal Oak: Mt. Clemens:
2000: 7,200 2000: 1,179
2004: 8,600 (up 19%) 2004: 1,345 (up 14%)
Livonia: Grosse Pointe Park:
2000: 13,167 2000: 1,500
2004: 15,000 (up 14%) 2004: 1,996 (up 33%)
Clinton Township: Dearborn:
2000: 11,877 2000: 7,090
2004: 13,499 (up 14%) 2004: 7,700 (up 8%)