I am very worried that the major media outlets will start calling states when the polls close on Tuesday night WITHOUT taking early voting into account. In Florida at least, early voting appears heavily to favor Kerry (not surprising because after the 2000 debacle, Dem voters, esp. African-American voters, fear disenfranchisement and went to the polls early in large numbers to make sure their votes were counted). As I understand it, local election boards will start counting early votes only after the polls close, so unless the networks have been polling early voters and have already worked out a method of including them, the Election Day exit polls will be way off. I have also read that something like 16% or more of Florida's voting population voted early, so we are talking very significant numbers. That could mean that the media will substantially undercount Kerry votes in their Election Night estimates. Anyone want to pick up the ball and run with it on this? I am swamped with work...
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