I'm sorry to report that I'm not particularly hopeful about Kerry's chances in New Mexico.
First, according to registration data as of October 29, 2004, when compared to the final, 2000 registration data, the four-year changes in partisan registration favor the Republicans.
Here are the party registration breakdowns, then and now:
- DEM 52.2%; GOP 32.7%, OTHER 15.1%
- DEM 49.8%; GOP 32.5%, OTHER 17.7%
Now, yes, there is a still a disproportionate two-party Democratic advantage. But keep in mind that said advantage four years ago translated into just a 366-vote win for Gore. The GOP has dropped .2% in four years, but the Dems have fallen by 2.4%. In short, though independents are rising, the Democrats' two-party share of registrants has declined.
Beyond registration data, the second reason I'm worried about NM is the economic situation. NM is rare among battleground states in that (a) its per-capita income has increased since Bush took office (16.1%) at a rate that exceeds the (dismal) national average of 11.0%; and (b) the share of people without health insurance has actually dropped by 2.8 percent between 98/99 and 02/03, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.
Despite going Democratic the last three times, I fear New Mexico will revert back to its Republican ways. MSNBC was reporting tonight that Bush had a 4-point lead there. I'm hoping a Kerry win in Nevada will compensate.
Any news from folks in either state to cheer us? Consider this a still-early-on-the-west-coast New Mexico and Nevada Open Thread.
Update (Jerome): Don't worry, there's been a Surge of voter rolls in New Mexico. Over half the newly registered are aged 18-34, over 36% are aged 18-24. Typical, they maintain their independence in party ID. The War in Iraq is their number one issue; they've been registered mostly by our 527's; they are hard to poll; they will vote for Kerry (Zogby finally adjusted his sample).