If you believe the most recent batch of SurveyUSA polls, you'll believe that George Bush is poised to win a greater share of the black vote than any Republican candidate in recent memory.
If you believe the most recent batch of SurveyUSA polls.
What follows is a comparison of the results from recent SurveyUSA polls to the results from the 2000 exit polls. At left are percentages from the 2000 exit polls and from the SurveyUSA polls, and at right are the number of respondents from the SurveyUSA polls.
PA Overall White Black Overall White Black
Exit Poll Exit Poll Exit Poll Poll Poll Poll
Bush 47% 47% 50% 51% 7% 14% 365 342 10
Democrat 51% 49% 48% 45% 90% 82% 380 302 58
Other 2% 1% 2% 1% 3% 3% 11 9 2
Undecided 0% 2% 0% 2% 0% 1% 19 14 1
IN Overall White Black Overall White Black
Exit Poll Exit Poll Exit Poll Poll Poll Poll
Bush 57% 58% 61% 62% 13% 17% 340 325 8
Democrat 41% 38% 37% 35% 85% 77% 227 186 37
Other 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 4% 13 10 2
Undecided 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% 2% 10 7 1
TN Overall White Black Overall White Black
Exit Poll Exit Poll Exit Poll Poll Poll Poll
Bush 51% 58% 60% 64% 8% 27% 372 332 26
Democrat 48% 39% 36% 34% 92% 70% 250 178 67
Other 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 6 5 1
Undecided 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 2% 9 6 2
MO Overall White Black Overall White Black
Exit Poll Exit Poll Exit Poll Poll Poll Poll
Bush 51% 49% 55% 53% 14% 17% 338 313 12
Democrat 47% 47% 42% 43% 84% 80% 321 253 55
Other 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 12 12 1
Undecided 0% 2% 0% 2% 0% 1% 12 10 1
CA Overall White Black Overall White Black
Exit Poll Exit Poll Exit Poll Poll Poll Poll
Bush 42% 43% 48% 48% 11% 21% 324 202 10
Democrat 54% 51% 47% 47% 86% 70% 382 197 33
Other 4% 3% 4% 3% 2% 4% 25 13 2
Undecided 0% 2% 0% 2% 0% 4% 17 8 2
OH Overall White Black Overall White Black
Exit Poll Exit Poll Exit Poll Poll Poll Poll
Bush 50% 48% 55% 53% 9% 20% 364 343 16
Democrat 46% 49% 41% 45% 89% 78% 375 293 62
Other 4% 1% 3% 1% 2% 3% 10 7 2
Undecided 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 11 10 0
NC Overall White Black Overall White Black
Exit Poll Exit Poll Exit Poll Poll Poll Poll
Bush 56% 52% 68% 65% 9% 8% 325 304 10
Democrat 43% 45% 31% 32% 90% 87% 280 150 111
Other 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 7 5 1
Undecided 0% 3% 0% 2% 0% 5% 16 9 6
FL Overall White Black Overall White Black
Exit Poll Exit Poll Exit Poll Poll Poll Poll
Bush 49% 51% 57% 55% 7% 17% 364 279 14
Democrat 49% 46% 40% 43% 93% 83% 329 216 68
Other 2% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 12 6 0
Undecided 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 6 5 0
NJ Overall White Black Overall White Black
Exit Poll Exit Poll Exit Poll Poll Poll Poll
Bush 41% 45% 45% 50% 11% 15% 310 251 12
Democrat 56% 50% 51% 45% 88% 79% 350 226 64
Other 3% 2% 3% 1% 0% 1% 13 7 1
Undecided 0% 3% 0% 3% 0% 5% 23 14 4
AL Overall White Black Overall White Black
Exit Poll Exit Poll Exit Poll Poll Poll Poll
Bush 57% 62% 72% 76% 8% 13% 373 345 16
Democrat 42% 34% 26% 22% 91% 82% 206 99 101
Other 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 12 8 4
Undecided 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 2% 7 4 2
These surveys were conducted between October 1st and 5th in 10 states. SurveyUSA also conducted polls of Maine, Nevada, and Washington, but it did not break down Maine by race; the 2000 exit polls did not break down black voter preferences in Nevada or Washington.
Bush polls higher among black voters than his 2000 exit polls in nine states; he polls twice his 2000 exit polls in four states; he polls three times his 2000 exit polls in one state.
Overall, there were 2785 white respondents and 761 black respondents in these 10 polls. These are their preferences, versus what the preferences would be, had they mirrored the 2000 exit poll results for their respective states:
White Black
SUSA EXIT SUSA EXIT
Bush 55% 56% 16% 9%
Kerry 42% 42% 79% 90%
Other 2% 2% 2% 1%
Undecided 2% 0% 2% 0%
Now, I'm sure I've engaged in some statistical naughtiness here, but if I'm even close to right, either there's been a substantial shift of black voters to Bush, or SurveyUSA is full of crap.
Given that Bush won election by disenfranchising black voters, distinguished his presidency by refusing to speak to black civil rights groups and opposing affirmative action, and seems intent on disenfranchising still more black voters to win re-election, I'm gonna say the latter: SurveyUSA is full of crap.