In spite of Bush's record of falling economic numbers and an increasingly unpopular war, he won. Here's the main reasons why, in order of importance. Sorry if some of these are rehashes-missed much of the blogging:
1) It must rock to be an War President. They can't lose, short of...well, nothing - they're invincible. They trump the 50 Percent Rule. They trump the Redskins Rule. They trump the Nickelodean Rule. They trump the Dow Jones Rule. Henry Ford once said history is bunk. As a history major, I'm inclined to agree.
(And note to Kos: Shouldn't the 300 character limit include extended entry text?)
- People hate gays. People who voted based on moral values voted 4-1 for Bush. Moral values were seen as the top issue of the election, according to exit polls, which seem to be mostly reliable, for finding internals. Does anyone else remember any other moral issues that were more than background noise, besides gay marriage However, as old people die, as they're prone to do, younger, significantly more socially liberal voters will take their place. 18-29 year olds went for Kerry by 10 percentage points, the only age group to back him. I'd equate this to 1956 in in the black civil rights movement.
- John Kerry was nothing special as a candidate, just Anybody But Bush. His campaign was competently and aggressively run on the message that Bush sucked. That wins 40% of the vote immediately, but does not win an election. In order for someone to win the Presidency, (s)he has to be likable and/or inspiring. There's a reason why ideologues like Reagan and moderates like Clinton are loved by alot of the same people. The last personally unappealing guy who won was Richard Nixon, who was aided by perfect political storms in 1972 and 1968 - it was unlikely another one could have won, especially given the above.