At first, I found some of the Republican vote vs. Republican registration numbers somewhat convincing in the arguement about whether Florida was in somewhat stolen. However, I noticed that a lot of counties which I
knew went to Bush in 2000 had rather high numbers of democratic registration.
So, I decided to compare the votes of Bush 2004 vs. Bush 2000 and Kerry 2004 vs. Gore 2000. I compared the % increase in the number votes between 2000 and 2004 as well as whether there was any difference between counties which used touchscreen to vote and those which used optical scanners to votes.
More below the fold.
After doing all of my calculations, for the state as a whole, these are the numbers which I calculated:
Bush gained an average of an 138.6% increase in the vote for him per county over 2000.
Kerry gained an average of an 118.1% increase in the vote for him per county over Gore in 2000.
28 counties were above average in the % change for Bush. 39 counties were below average in the % change for Bush.
32 counties were above average in the % change for Kerry. 35 counties were below average in the % change for Kerry.
Top Counties which has a significantly larger shift towards Bush than the average
- Dixie County (+25.8%) - Bush 2000 - Opitcal
- Oceloa County (+25.7%) - Bush 2000 - Optical
- Sumpter County (+24.7%) - Bush 2000 - Touchscreen
- Columbia County (+14.2%) - Bush 2000 - Optical
- Levy County (+13.1%) - Bush 2000 - Optical
- Pasco County (+11.9%) - Bush 2000 - Touchscreen
- Wakulla County (+11.6%) - Bush 2000 - Optical
- Gilcrest County (+10.9%) - Bush 2000 - Optical
- Lake County (+10.2%) - Bush 2000 - Touchscreen
State: 77.6% Optical 22.4% Touchscreen
Above: 66.7% Optical 33.3% Touchscreen
In the above sample, there doesn't seem to be any more of tendency for Optical scanner counties to wildly favor Bush from over 2000 than touchscreen counties.
How about counties where Kerry lost more votes than average?
- Holmes County (-35.1%) - Bush 2000 - Optical
- Union County (-29.3%) - Bush 2000 - Optical
- Baker County (-27.1%) - Bush 2000 - Optical
- Hardee County (26.5%) - Bush 2000 - Optical
- Calhoun County (-20.1%) - Bush 2000 - Optical
- Gulf County (-18.2%) - Bush 2000 - Optical
- Putnam County (-15.7%) - Bush 2000 - Optpical
- Washington County (-14.1%) - Bush 2000 - Optical
- Liberty County (-13.0%) - Bush 2000 - Optical
- Bradford County (-12.7%) - Bush 2000 - Optical
- Gilchrist County (-12.7%) - Bush 2000 - Optical
- Lafayette County (-11.1%) - Bush 2000 - Optical
- Dixie County (-11.0%) - Bush 2000 - Optical
- Hernando County (-11.0%) - Bush 2000 - Optical
Now, the interesting thing about this one is that every single county above is an optical scanner county.
Now, here are actual result differences for the above counties, with actual difference from 2000, difference had the county been on average, and the total difference change between average and actual:
Holmes County - Lost 367 votes (average: Gain 396 votes) [Difference: 763 votes]
Union County - Lost 156 votes (average: Gain 256 votes) [Difference: 412 votes]
Baker County - Lost 212 votes (average: Gain 387 votes) [Difference: 599 votes]
Hardee County - Lost 194 votes (average: Gain 426 votes) [Difference: 620 votes]
Calhoun County - Lost 40 votes (average: Gain 392 votes) [Difference: 432 votes]
Gulf County - Exactly tied (average: Gain 436 votes) [Difference: 436 votes]
Putnum County - Gained 302 votes (average: Gain 2203 votes) [Difference: 1901 votes]
Washington County - Gained 114 votes (average: Gain 509 votes) [Difference: 395 votes]
Liberty County - Gained 53 votes (average: Gain 185 votes) [Difference: 132 votes]
Bradford County - Gained 169 votes (average: Gain 560 votes) [Difference: 391 votes]
Gilcrest County - Gained 106 votes (average: Gain 348 votes) [Difference: 242 votes]
Lafayette County - Gained 56 votes (average: Gained 144 votes) [Difference: 88 votes]
Dixie County - Gained 132 votes (average: Gain 333 votes) [Difference: 201 votes]
Hernando County - Gained 2358 votes (average: Gain 5942) [Difference: 3584 votes]
Obviously, all of these are small counties except for Hernando County, which cast about 75,000 votes for President this year.
However, even with these huge differences in actual and average change of vote, the total difference in all 14 counties is still just 10,196, obviously well short of the 300,000 or so votes neede by Kerry. Also, a full 35% of those votes come from Hernando county alone.
Now, lets look at breakdown by type of voting device:
Optical Scanner
Overall (52 counties)
Bush gained 139.3% (+0.8 % from average)
Kerry gained 116.9% (-1.3% from average)
2000 Bush Counties (41)
Bush gained 139.6%
Kerry gained 113.3%
2000 Gore Counties (11)
Bush gained 138.5%
Kerry gained 130.2%
A total shift of 2.2% for Bush than average...2% is a good number, but not nearly enough to swing the election.
Electronic Voting
Overall (15 counties)
Bush gained 135.9% (-2.7% from average)
Kerry gained 122.8% (+4.6% from average)
2000 Bush Counties (10)
Bush gained 136.1% (-3.5% from Optiscan)
Kerry gained 123.9% (+10.6% from Optiscan)
2000 Gore Counties (5)
Bush gained: 134.3% (-4.2% from Optiscan)
Kerry gained: 119.1% (-3.7% from Optiscan)
Here there is a 7.3% shift in Kerry's favor. If I were a dispassionate observer, I would almost conclude that E-vote counties biased Kerry, instead of Optical scanning counties biased Bush.
Of course, since a large majority of counties are optiscan counties, one would expect the optiscan average to be pretty close to the state average.
Something else that is interesting as well. In 2000 Gore counties, there is little difference between the Optiscan and Electronic Voting numbers...there is just about the same difference for both Bush and Kerry between Optiscan and Touchscreen counties that Gore won in 2000.
In Bush counties, however, there is an almost a 15% Bush advantage in Optiscan counties that Bush won in 2000 than Touchscreen counties that Bush won in 2000. Also, this difference has more to do with Kerry having a small change from 2000 than Bush having a bigger gain from 2000 on average.
These percentages may also be off, however, because it is an average of counties, and as you saw above, several small Optiscan counties had large % drop for Kerry below the average, and that could skew the results.
I hope this diary has confused you further than you already are.
Just post questions and I'll try to answer them. thank you.