County by county the path becomes clear.
Take a good look at where the Democrats got their votes in this last election. Not the state-by-state map, but the county-by-county map. (This map was published in the San Jose Mercury News on 3 November and updated on 4 November 2004.) When you look at the map, it's clear where the Democratic Party needs to work over the next four years.
What's fascinating about this map is how little of a state (geographically) it takes to win it. About three dozen counties along the Pacific coast were enough to take California, Oregon and Washington states (73 electoral votes). A smattering of counties along Lake Superior and throughout New England and along the Hudson River, along with isolated cities in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin were enough to ensure victories in those states, which was practically all of the rest of the Democratic electoral vote total.
But what's even more fascinating are four areas of the Red States where individual counties went Democratic even though their states went Red.
Front Range
Take a look at the Rocky Mountains. All along the Front Range we find a strip of heavy Democratic voting. The environment no doubt made the difference here. And for good reason. Much of this is pristine wilderness threatened by a huge influx of new settlers and a few guys with oil rigs. What's Bush's plan for this region? Go drill. This is going to take national park and nearby land, untouched trees, mountains and streams as far as the eye can see and plant an eyesore right in the middle of it.
The citizens of Montana might not want to vote Democratic for President, but it's no mystery why they have a Democratic governor. Four more years of oil shrubbery growing in Montana and they might be on our side as soon as 2008.
Mississippi
Can you spell it? There are only half a dozen or so counties on the banks of the Mississippi River (south of Illinois) that voted for Bush this year. What's up with that? Have recent rains washed away all of the Republicans? This may never wash Mississippi or Louisiana states into the Democratic column, but you have to wonder about Missouri and Arkansas.
The Heartland of the South
We think of the South as the heart of the Republican Party, but really the heart of the South is Democratic. Kerry won a wide strip of counties starting in south central North Carolina and trailing through South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi. What were these people thinking? Probably that four more years of George was bad for Georgia.
The Heartland of the Rust Belt
The heart of the South has something in common with Silicon Valley, the heavily Democratic counties in Ohio and the tiny, lost-in-the-mountains counties in West Virginia. Forgotten is what they have in common. Wherever the economy and the Republicans have forgotten the people they used, that's where people are voting for the Democrats. What have those folks got left? Rotten steel factories falling into rusty red rivers? Old silicon foundries paved over for shopping malls? Strip mines filling up with toxic mud? Certainly not jobs.
The Plan
Where should the Democratic Party look to rebuild? First, we should target the swing states right now. Here is a list of states that barely tolerated George Bush in this election (with their approximate Kerry percentage):
- Iowa 49.1%
- Ohio 48.4%
- New Mexico 47.3%
- Florida 47.0%
- Colorado 45.7%
- Virginia 45.6%
- Missouri 45.4%
In all of these states the projected margin was less than 5% in favor of Bush. That means there is a solid Democratic constituency in these states that must be cultivated.
The following are swing states that went for Kerry and need to be defended (with their approximate Bush percentage):
- Wisconsin 49.3%
- New Hampshire 48.9%
- Michigan 47.5%
- Minnesota 47.5%
- New Jersey 46.5%
- Oregon 46.5%
- Washington 46.1%
Here we need to ask ourselves why these states stayed with the Democrats. Whatever kept them in our column must be cultivated.
And here are three more that the Democrats should target for other reasons.
- Texas 38.3%
- Arkansas 44.7%
- Georgia 40.8%
This is where the Democrats should attack the Republicans on their home turf. Why? Because deep inroads into these states will put the Republicans back on their heels. It also acts as a litmus test for Democratic appeal. If you can go into these states and get votes, you are going to also take votes in the swing states. Furthermore, all of these states have strong Democratic pockets to act as bases of operations.
Can the Democrats appeal to voters in these states? Yes. Look at Texas. Does George Bush at 61% strike you as a resounding Republican success? They ran an incumbent Republican in a strongly conservative state and he got less than 2/3 of the vote. Hardly a ringing endorsement.
Not long ago Texas had a Democratic governor. All three of these states have produced Democratic Presidents in the last several decades. We don't need to fear these states; we need to take them back.
We can do that by going back to our roots and talking about the value of work. Labor is where economic value ultimately comes from. Sure, capital provides potential, but it's worthless without work. What has happened to the value of labor in our modern economy?
The vast majority of people in Texas get their money by working for it. That makes them Democrats at heart. We got to get to them at that level. We need to tell people over and over: "You can tell which party you belong to by looking at your check. If you got it from your employer, you are a Democrat. If it's a dividend, then you are a Republican." Our message should be this simple:
Check your check.
There are two key underlying principles of the Democratic Party that will appeal across the board in all of these states. One is the value of work. The other is the value of the environment. We have the right values. We need to make our values the centerpiece of our appeal.
We have outposts already in all of the Red states. We need to support those outposts and help them to grow. We can do that by directing the right message to them and getting them to help us move it out along the Front Range; the Mississippi River Valley; the heartland of the South; and, the inner cities of Ohio, Florida, Georgia and Texas. That's where opportunity lies.