In an obvious post November 2nd move, the pentagon just announced the increase of U.S. troop levels in Iraq to 150,000. The stated purpose of these additional 12,000 troops is to help secure the country in order to hold elections on January 30th. But as with every other major issue in the Iraq war, the administration has failed to answer any questions regarding its long-term plans. Conventional Wisdom (or CW as the insiders who create and promulgate it like to say) is that the real plan includes active and large U.S. troop presence in Iraq for anywhere from 3 to 10 years. I don't know what set of facts CW is looking at, but from where I am sitting there is only one clear outcome of the latest Bush moves - rapid withdrawal (within 6 to 12 months).
Breaking the Force
Despite being pushed up to and in some cases beyond the breaking point, there is no plan what so ever to increase the size of the military. And it is simple impossible to maintain the current deployment tempo for more than another year with out increasing the size of the military (read Army/Marine infantry) either through a draft or through recruiting volunteers. It would take at least 12 and probably 18 months through either method to pass the needed law, appropriate the funds, recruit/draft the troops, train the troops, create the military units, and acquire the needed equipment.
The pentagon has used all its other options: redeployment of troops from other places like Korea, deployment of training units, the back door draft, and dipping deep into the reserves and guards. Recently, in a clear sign of how weak and unprepared our military is the pentagon even felt the need to warn Iran that our military isn't weak and unprepared link. The well is dry and cupboard is bare and everyone knows it. It's either increase the size of the force or withdrawal. Bush has stated categorically that there will be no draft while he has been very vague about what victory means and when U.S. troops will come home. This latest deployment signals the end game is near since no attempt is being made to conserve or build the force needed for an extended stay in Iraq.
Free Elections - Sort of
There is no one in any position of credibility that thinks that Iraqi elections in six weeks will produce a universally accepted government. Despite this, Bush insists the elections will go forward because they are his ticket home. Bush is not a political idiot. He knows that U.S. public support is wavering and that it wouldn't take much to push things drastically against his war. He has also clearly shown that his attention span for Iraq is diminished and is signaling that he wants to spend his political capital re-making our country into the capitalist theocracy envisioned by the U.S. right.
Politically, Bush and Rove would rather weather the storm about the lowered goal posts sooner rather than closer to the 2006 mid-term elections. The Iraqi elections provide Bush the opportunity to claim victory and pull out. His best hope is that the U.S. will be able to retain some basing rights, but I think he is even willing to give that up. The increase in troop strength now is a last ditch effort to have the Iraqi elections appear in the best possible light. But 12,000 more troops aren't likely to make much of a difference against an insurgency that has been getting stronger over time.
Look for some kind of announcement in early to mid-February that "Democracy has taken hold in Iraq" and that the "Iraqi people are now ready to govern and protect themselves".
CW says that a U.S. pull out of this sort will result in a power vacuum in Iraq and that chaos will ensue. I'm not so sure. I will write more about that later.
Originally posted at Veterans for Common Sense.