While taking my daily look over the latest polling information (I admit, I'm addicted to them), I ran across
this gem done by SurveyUSA for a Wichita, KS TV station. Among other things, it shows the following:
KS - vote for President in Nov. 2004:
George Bush (R): 52%
John Kerry (D): 44%
The internals show that Bush has a huge lead over Kerry in the Wichita area. Bush also leads by 15 points in conservative western Kansas. But, across the rest of the state (including the capitol city of Topeka and the KC suburbs), Kerry and Bush are essentially tied (Bush 49%-Kerry 48%).
Now, when considering those numbers, keep in mind that Bush destroyed Gore in Kansas during the 2000 election by 21 points (58% to 37%).
The same poll shows Bush beating Edwards by the same margin he beat Gore by in 2000 (58% to 37%) and Bush annihilating Dean by 32 points (63% to 31%).
There are probably a number of reasons for Kerry's relatively competitiveness in this poll. Here is my take one it. One, all the postitive media he has received recently (Drudge doesn't count) in the wake of the primaries has undoubtedly helped his position all over the county. Two, I get the sense that strong establishment-type northeastern Democrats (like Kerry, Dukakis, etc.) fare better than one would expect in the Plains states. Third, Kansas has a popular DEM Governor now in Kathleen Sebelius. The state party (and Democrat's standing in general) has undoubtedly benefitted from that. And lastly, Bush is really not in as good of shape in the Plains as you might expect. A lot of the anti-government types who supported Bush in 2000 are a little (even a lot) nervous about some of his policies (namely, the "Patriot Act" stuff).
Now, obviously its early in the game, and anything can happen in politics. However, in the end, I expect Bush will win Kansas without much of a sweat in November. But, the very fact that we can even discuss the possibility of a close race there at this point is very telling of just how far Bush's national standing as fallen.