There seem to be a lot of people on this site really upset (and angry) about the fate of Howard Dean. That's understandable. I've supported enough marginal candidates that really fired me up but ended up crashing and burning to know what it feels like. Salon.com had a great article from a woman that was involved with the Dean campaign all the way through about her thoughts and feelings on the whole thing, you should all look it up if you get the chance. But standing in the cold listening to a candidate speak, totally entranced, and thinking giddily "This guy's the deal, and maybe, just maybe, he can make it". Running through possible scenarios in your head about the remote possibilities that could lead to a win, hoping against hope, tricking yourself into thinking these remote possibilities may not be so remote after all. Taking every good sign absolutely PERSONALLY, like it's YOU that's being validated when the candidate is. Not to put too fine a point on it, but it can be like a drug, like a cult, at times. Trust me, I know how it feels.
But then comes the cold reality of the election results, and everything goes screwy. Those remote possibilities never pan out, everything "they" said would happen, did, despite how much effort you had expended convincing yourself that "they" were wrong, "they" just didn`t know what they were talking about, didn`t know your guy like you do. First stage of grief is denial, and for awhile anyway, you still hope that something spectacular will happen. Those remote possibilities become even more remote, but even more enticing.
But then the day comes when you're still talking, but the debate has ended. The conclusions have been reached, or have become so foregone as to make the conversation pointless. You're standing at the docks, but the boat's already left, and you're holding a ticket for the wrong ship, staring down at it dumbly, not understanding. And that sucks.
Then comes the second stage, anger. Obviously, something is broken. The system, the media, the financers, the electoral college, the moral system, whatever. Somebody fucked up somewhere for this to have happened. Oftentimes, this leads to the absolute most dangerous intellectual position that anybody can hold: That obviously, everybody is stupid but you. You had it figured out from the beginning, but all those sheeple out there are all such insipid fools. If only they all would have thought like you did, things would have turned out right. This is a bit of a digression, but never fool yourself into thinking that. It's stupid, it's scary, and it's dangerous. Believe in your opinions, of course, but don't start thinking that the people that don't agree with you are morons, just because they don't agree with you.
Pretty words aside, here's something for you Deaniacs (or whatever) to remember. That sometimes, it's not the man that's important, but the fight. And sometimes, when you lose, you still win. And at the risk of sounding condescending, I don't think Dean supporters should be angry and dejected at this point. I think they should be damn proud.
Here is what Dean, and in particular his ardent grassroots supporters (like many of you) have done for the country:
- You restored fire to the Democratic party, something that's been missing since the early 90s. The Republicans have gotten to the point where they frame the issues, where they are the ruling party, where they are the default. The Democrats have been largely splintered, unmotivated, and worst of all, ineffective, for years. After 9-11, it almost looked like the Democrats were throwing in the towel and just accepting their role as dissenters to the real winners. Even a year ago, the party was nearly a joke. But something happened when Dean started to take center stage. He raised everybody's eyebrows. What was looking to be, as the Daily Show called it, a Race From the Whitehouse, actually became a movement. People started to take notice. The primaries suddenly became interesting instead of an expected race to nominate a loser. The 2008 campaign was supposed to be the battleground, but Dean bumped it up four years. The Democrats hadn't been able to get a handle on how to affect change anymore since 9-11. The attitude was that people wouldn't buy true opposition anymore, in the national wagon-circling that resulted, so the best that could be done was a lukewarm wishy-washy sort of defense. Try to score a few hits here and there, but for God's sake don't challenge the president, don't rock the boat. Dean proved to everybody what nobody had previously believed. That even though Bush was rating high in popularity and nobody was willing to take the fight right to him, he was vulnerable, if only you had the balls to step right to him. Take a look back and view the national political landscape pre-Dean, and compare it to now. It shifted rather dramatically when nobody was looking. Bush went from the incumbent that couldn't lose ala Clinton, to a vulnerable president with credibility issues, ala his father, in the amazing span of only three months or so. Dean is largely responsible for that shift. It's not a rubber stamp election anymore. It's a real fight. And it's you guys that restored that fire to the party.
- You shifted the national debate. Dean himself mentions this a lot, and rightfully so. A lot of people like to complain that Kerry and Edwards voted for the war, voted for the Patriot Act, etc. And they're right, and were I running against either in the Senate, I would nail their balls to the wall on that. But once Dean came out swinging on the war, on the Patriot Act, on the tax cuts, and it resounded with voters, suddenly it looked okay for the other candidates to go hardline on those issues instead of being wishy-washy. Without Howard Dean, I promise you that the anti-war vote wouldn't have mobilized as effectively. Lieberman would still be in the race, Kerry and Edwards would be reticent to go full blown anti-war, the entire approach to the war would have been a lot softer. All of a sudden, opinion polls on Iraq started shifting drastically. All of a sudden, voters realized that it was okay to not be all "I support the president" when relating to national security issues. And all the candidates responded in kind. They stole many of Dean's original platforms, to be sure, which he gripes about, but at the end of the day, isn't that a GOOD thing? He shifted the national debate away from a "you're either with us or against us, and pro-Bush = pro-America", to the airing of very real (and mobilizing) grievances that have caught on. This would never have happened if it had turned into a Kerry vs Lieberman primary.
- You brought out the vote. And that will be CRUCIAL in November, though it's still unseen whether or not that will continue to be a factor once Dean goes out. Take a look here: http://www.rhodescook.com/ Pay particular attention to the record-breaking turnouts in New Hampshire (swing), Arizona (swing), Virginia, South Carolina (swing?), Delaware, and nearly Iowa. To tell you the truth, I've gotten to the point where I'm barely looking at the results anymore, I'm just looking at the turnouts. Because the best chance that the Dems have of winning in November is if they can pick up a lot of people that wouldn't otherwise vote, and if enough Bush-supporting moderate Republicans and conservative independents decide to stay home. That's what's going to decide the election, I promise you right now. 90% of likely voters are already decided on whether they're going to vote for Bush or not. Democrats can (and should) fight for that remaining 10%, and hope to squeeze of 6 instead of 4, but even more powerful is if they can bring in a large number of people that WEREN'T "likely" voters. That fucks the whole equation, and that's something that Dean has helped the Democrats with, whereas Bush has hurt himself consistently. This is a critical piece to any general election strategy, and Dean's campaign EXCELLED at bringing in new voters. That may not materialize in the general election, but if it does, the Dems have a damn good shot at the White House this year. Hence, I really hope that Dean at some point takes all his energy and works FOR the nominee, instead of just falling back in the shadows. And I hope his supporters don't become dejected and decide to stay home, but instead shift their votes and keep working as hard as they have. That'll be a powerful electoral force.
- Dean promised the nominee a good ride. And this, my last point, is perhaps the one Dean supporters will least like to hear. But it can't be understated.
Here is what Bush & Co wanted. They wanted a joke of a primary where nothing new was discussed, where the dems were wishy-washy, but where they all beat the shit out of each other, and the nominee would end up being some hopeless loser that was still bleeding from his wounds. They wanted a primary like the 2000 one (on either side), where there was one obvious winner and one obvious loser who made it a point to batter the winner. That's what they expected.
Then something strange happened. Dean came from out of nowhere and seemed to take the lead even before any ballots were cast. "Great," thought the Republicans. "We'll eat this guy alive. Now the primary will be Dean vs. The Others, he'll come out of the process crippled, we'll put him out of his misery".
But then something REALLY strange happened. Dean had taken all the front-runner heat for months, he had borne the brunt of the process, and, until a week before Iowa, he was the obvious nominee. He had been the punching bag for everybody, Dems and Republicans alike. This was true for the media, the Republican attack dogs, the Democrat attack dogs, everybody. And when suddenly Kerry started winning, everything was up in the air. Dean took all the heat, but Kerry emerged the winner. Dean had, unwittingly, become the stunt double for the nominee. So instead of Dean coming out of the process battered and bleeding, now it looks like Kerry will come out of the primaries riding on a wave of support, smelling like a rose. Of course, a lot can happen between now and the convention (and then from the convention to the election), but from the looks of it, all the pre-election heat went to Dean, all the momentum went to Kerry, and by the time Bush and Kerry start meeting head on, Kerry will have an amazing hand to play. I tell you the Democrats couldn't have PLANNED a better scenario than this. I personally don't think Kerry is the most electable of the bunch, I don't agree with him ideologically much, but when it comes to how the nominee would want the primaries to go, this is it. A good race that fires everybody up and spits out a nominee who is riding a wave of support, relatively unscathed.
A lot can happen between now and the convention. A lot can happen between the convention and the election. And the people that support Dean should continue to vote for him (always vote with your gut, I think). But once the nominee is chosen, if you're really interested in unseating Bush, don't let the fire burn out, but redirect it. Channel it. And, if it does turn out that Kerry beats Bush, in my opinion, Howard Dean would end up as being the first on the list of people he should thank.
So don't be angry. Don't be dejected. Because you're making happen what nobody thought was possible a year ago. Be proud. If you keep working as hard as you have, you may have a real shot of unseating Bush come November. And, though your guy may not be the one to ascend, your cause has ultimately been served.