John Edwards has two weeks to prove he can get at least three wins on March 2.
I suspect he'll carry Georgia with ease because Kerry will smartly concede that state in order to concentrate his resources and efforts making sure Edwards wins nowhere else. Edwards next best bet is probably Ohio, where the blue-collar job loss will affirm Edwards' message. For the sake of argument, let's assume he nails down Ohio, too. Those two wins are not enough. He'll still need a third, significant win...
...which just might be New York -- at first blush, a strange place for a Southern millworker's son to win. But anyone familiar with the post-industrial situation along the Upstate I-90 corridor between Albany to Buffalo -- including parts of the North Country region above, and the Southern Tier below -- knows that Edwards' message will resonate well Upstate. His big-wins-in-small-jurisdictions approach has worked well, as Iowa proved and, I suspect, the final Wisconsin results will confirm. Remember: NY's junior senator was not supposed to run well Upstate, but she beat Rick Lazio precisely because she did.
If Edwards can win GA, OH and squeak out any kind of win in NY, he stays alive for another week. And that would really shake things up because the four states and 460 delegates chosen on March 9 all come from Edwards-favorable states: Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas
It's strange to think that my home state of New York (Albany) could be the tipping point. But if Edwards can make it there, he could make it anywhere.