Millions in the Spanish streets - more than during the huge anti-war global protest, though the weather is quite horrible today in Spain. (2 mio+ in Madrid, more than 1 mio in Barcelona, literally millions in other cities).
Meanwhile, the investigation goes on.
Millions in the Spanish streets - more than during the huge anti-war global protest, though the weather is quite horrible today in Spain. (2 mio+ in Madrid, more than 1 mio in Barcelona, literally millions in other cities).
Meanwhile, the investigation goes on.
Some news from NYT:
Police officials described meticulous preparations by terrorists who may have numbered between 12 to 30 in order to scatter the bombs in three train stations.
If the estimates are correct, the ETA lead is a bit fishy. The organisation lost 200 members in 2003 only, jailed by Spain and France, and estimates of the active core members is at 250-300 now. That and the high coordination of 10 bombings in 4 trains seems a bit too much for them alone.
Then comes some interesting news from Spanish El Pais. The explosives, contrary to what was originally thought, are not the explosives ETA stole in France; explosives and detonators are not the usual ETA stuff, though made in Spain and having been used by ETA in a few cases.
Then of course, there are several ETA members and closely linked people that bluntly denied all involvement (for instance see this. Denial is a very rare move for this terrorist organisation.
Now, some tidbits heard in radio and seen in TV, which I so far haven't been ablt to track down online:
- Spanish govt still heavy on the "ETA is guilty" claim. Foreign Minister Palacio even asked other countries to officially support that claim and blame ETA, even though PM Aznar doesn't rule out other options. Looks like they want to milk that for the Sunday election. Of course if it turns out that Al-Qaeda is involved - and that the govt has tried to hude that and scapegoat the Basques instead - the fallout may be quite bad for them, though probably not to the point of losing the election.
- Apparently some Spanish media reports that their secret services were primarily suspecting AQ since yesterday but govt pressured them to check any evidence linking to ETA - the usual suspects, for very valid reasons.
- By far the most ominous news of the day so far. Most probably heard that some AQ affiliate group told London-based Al-Qods that Al-Qaeda did it. Some also reported that they added that Muslims should be glad because the big operation against the US was at 90% completed.
Well, turns out it isn't the whole message. They also said that at least 3 major operations were underway, the 1st being Death Train in Spain, the 2nd Black Smoke Death in Italy, the 3rd one Wind of Death in the US. If there's any truth behind that, you can try to imagine what kind of attacks it could be, keeping in mind the US attack would logically be bigger than the Spanish one - I mean, if Al-Qaeda wants to be taken seriously they will aim at least for something on the WTC level.
I hope to see more on that in the news, and if indeed that letter appeared in Al-Qods, I hope that some informed expert, like say Juan Cole, will be able to blog about it this weekend.
All in all, my personal feeling until 3 hours ago was that it was still 50/50 between ETA and Al-Qaeda. Now I'm at less than 30% for a purely ETA-led attack, and more than 70% odds that AQ or clones are involved, either by doing it entirely by themselves or as a joint operation with rogue ETA members gone the Real IRA way.
