And where is the country going? Yesterday, we looked at who the
swing voters are. Now, according to both gallup and rasmussen, most voters have made up their minds already (83% gallup, 90% rasmussen). And they're paying close attention.
The pool of voters who say they currently support a candidate but could change their mind are sometimes referred to as "soft" supporters. One challenge faced by every campaign is how to maintain or strengthen the loyalty of these soft supporters while also reaching out to attract a broader pool of undecided voters.
An analysis of data collected over the past week shows that 83% of Bush voters "certain" they will vote for him. Seventy-two percent (72%) of Kerry voters say the same. Kerry's "soft" supporters, those who could change their mind, are evenly divided between conservatives and liberals. Bush's soft support leans more heavily conservative.
Soft supporters are, in effect, those who neither love nor loathe the president... it has little to do with Kerry yet.
Perhaps the most significant explanation of why these soft supporters are not certain of how they will vote is that they have middle-of-the-road assessments of the President's job approval. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Kerry's soft supporters, and 66% of Bush's, comes from people who "somewhat" approve or disapprove of the President's performance.
Other attributes of the soft supporters include:
- Fifty-six percent (56%) of Kerry's soft support, and 46% of the President's, comes from American Investors. The stock market's performance in coming months could have a significant impact on this group.
- Fifty-eight percent (58%) of the Senator's soft support is from women. For Bush, that number is 51%. (NOTE: A related survey found a huge gender gap on the best way to deal with terrorists. A majority of men believe the most effective strategy is to let terrorists know we will fight back aggressively. A majority of women say it is best to work with other nations for an international solution.) [ed. thus proving women are smarter]
- Sixty-six percent (66%) of Kerry's soft support comes from voters who say they will vote for a Democrat in Congressional elections.
- Fifty percent (50%) of Bush's soft support comes from those who will vote for the GOP in Congressional elections.
Soft support is actually bigger this year than swing voters (?maybe every year, since most swings have a preference when pressed).
DHinMI has identified another category called surge voters. These are the people, many of them young and first time voters, who came out in high numbers after the Madrid bombing to cast out Aznar. Deaniacs often characterize their man as the one to get these voters to the polls. If true (and it's yet to be proved it is), that's a very valuable role for Dean to play.