When I found out that Kerry was taking a vacation as a new slew of campaign attack ads was being unleashed, I wondered if it was a good idea. In retrospect, it looks like it was.
Right now, Kerry and the Democrats are sitting pretty. Here are a few noted items which lead me to this conclusion:
1) Bush has spent over 1/4 of his cash on hand, and his 'bump' has turned into a 'slump' in the latest polls.
- $18 Million is alot of cash. It's main effort was to 'introduce' Kerry to the population while painting over the Bushco shortfalls with Red White and Blue. Kerry has managed to completely dodge this $18 Million bullet and is leading or even in the polls most recently, both from Republican leaning polling organizations. In the less Republican polls, he's probably out in front of even the MOE. The $18 Million basically bought alot of negative press over 9/11 images, and little motion in the polls. Hell, look how they were spinning the polls last night on Hardball. The Repuc spokesman was claiming that Kerry's Downtick is more important that Bush's Uptick. LOL! You have to be kidding right? You're suggesting that the other guy losing 2 or 3 points and your guy not gaining any is a 'victory' over $18 Million?
2) Free Media continues to play a greater role in this campaign.
- The Clarke testimony has gotten long traction and most people pay his charges some credibility as shown in the Fox Poll Internals. Americans are starting to really wonder if Bush is better at the War On Terror. Fox's latest poll indicates only 41% of their sample think we're winning it. This is bad news for Bush as it's his only 'positive' issue which he can run on. Now Clarke's charges are going to sink in, people will read that book, still number 1 on Amazon, and WOM will spread more.
3) Kerry's Fundraising is shapping up to be quite strong.
- 10 Million in 10 days is in the bag. Getting a boost from the Dean endorsement today will bring in another deminsion to the fold. Tonight's $11 Million fundraiser will sure up the DNC, which still hasn't publically announced its transerance of warchest operations money to Kerry. Kerry will also go into full fundraising mode in April hosting large donor meetings throughout the month while continuing to fundraise heavily on the net. The patern put into place during the campaign is still working. Fundraise heavily on the net and hit those who can afford the dinners simultaniously and see the money pour in. The good news is Kerry doesn't need nearly as much money as Bush. Bush's first launch of ads has fallen flat and cost him $18 Million. Kerry's ads should be positive and "introductory" to the greater population. His latest one is very good IMO and hits that tone perfectly.
4) The party is unifying and with time, the wounds among supporters over the primaries will heal as we all unite.
- His off camera comments about "lying crocks" was worth at least $20 Million in party unification efforts, and it was FREE. More and more democrats are sitting comfortably with Kerry the candidate, and as time passes, we will find that no amount of money can get Bush over that 45pt hurdle. The middle ground will remain Kerry's for the taking, and he will be able to focus all his energy in the 15 states that will decide the election.
5) Republican's are still on the defensive, after a brief break the last two weeks.
- Kerry's biggest strength has been his offensive stance as the underdog. He got nicked the last two weeks over a few minor gaffs, but now with Clarke blowing Rove a hole in his head, the Republican's are getting alot of press over being Extremely defensive. Conventional wisdom suggests you never want to play defense. Kerry's not right now, and that's a good thing.
So as the polls come out and the stories flow, IMO, there will not be any successful Bush Barages in this spring or summer. Bush's window has come and gone, and after today, Kerry will have money in the bank to get out there and out in front. It's his turn to define himself, and look for that in the weeks ahead as he solidifies his numbers and policy proposals.
Couple all of this against the backdrop of the 527's which are going to continue to ramp up, and overall, we're sitting very pretty.
$18 Million didn't even chink the armor. I'm no longer worried about Bush's Money. We can take it, and we will win!
