Emprical states to win

I've been trying to do some objective studies of which states we need to win, using the tradesports prices for a Bush win in each state. Defined as follows:

• A state trading below 40 is a safe Dem
• A state trading above 65 is a safe Rep
• A state trading 40-50 is an 'in-play' 'defend'
• A state trading 51-65 is an 'in-play' 'target'

So, I've written this script which generates a list of all the minimal sets of in-play states with which we get a majority of EV. These 'minimal' sets are sets that win us the election, but if you remove any state from the set we lose (or draw). An additional constraint is that there are no more than 2 'target' states in a set.

There are 24 permutations of states which meet these criteria...

IA MI MN MO OH PA
IA MI MN NV OH PA
IA MI MN NM OH PA
IA MI MN OH PA WV
IA MI MO OH PA WV
MI MN MO OH PA WV
IA MI MN MO NV PA WI
IA MI MN MO NH PA WI
IA MI MN MO NM PA WI
IA MI MN OH PA WI
IA MI MO OH PA WI
MI MN MO OH PA WI
IA MI NV OH PA WI
MI MN NV OH PA WI
MI MN NH OH PA WI
IA MI NM OH PA WI
MI MN NM OH PA WI
IA MI MN MO OH WV WI
IA MI MN MO PA WV WI
IA MI MN NV NM PA WV WI
IA MI OH PA WV WI
MI MN OH PA WV WI
MI MO OH PA WV WI
IA MN MO OH PA WV WI

Things I notice

• PA is in all but one of these sets - lose PA and we are in deep doodoo
• Every set but one contains either OH or MO
• Florida isn't listed because it is trading above 65...