I'm still of the mind that if we win Florida, we're going to win
a lot of other states that currently seem out of reach. Florida
has trended Red in the four years since the last election.
So if the latest post-Super Tuesday polls out of Florida are to be believed, thing are looking really bleak for Bush right now.
Miami Herald. 3/3-4. MoE 3.5%. (December results).
Bush 43 (51)
Kerry 49 (38)
Nader 3 (n/a)
Unsure 5 (11)
American Research Group. 3/3-4. MoE 4%. No trend linens.
Bush 44
Kerry 45
Nader 4
Not Sure 7
There are a ton of caveats -- Kerry is riding high after his Super Tuesday victories, it's early, Bush was having an exceptionally bad week, Bush hadn't started his ad blitz, etc, etc.
But if Bush is doing this poorly in a state that should lean his way, then his national position is in far worse shape than previously expected.
One worrisome fact, from the Miami Herald poll:
Despite at least one survey last week showing concerns among some Cuban-American voters about Bush's approach to Cuba policy, that survey and the Herald/St. Petersburg Times poll show Bush winning the solid backing of Florida's influential Hispanic bloc.
Among Hispanics, Bush leads Kerry 56 to 40 percent. The Bush number includes not only the typically GOP-voting Cuban Americans, but also traditionally Democratic non-Cubans who backed Al Gore in 2000.
Latinos are the most volatile swing vote in American elections today. The
New Democrat Network is currently the only Democratic Party or affiliated institution
targeting Latino voters.
In an effort to reclaim a voting base they once took for granted, Democrats have unleashed a wave of advertisements aimed at luring Latino voters to presumptive Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry in the November election.
"We recognize the Hispanic vote is not now a part of the base constituency of the Democratic Party _ it is up for grabs," former President Clinton spokesman Mike McCurry said. "It's not like the Latino vote of the 1980s."
McCurry is a member of the political action committee New Democrat Network, which on Friday launched a $5 million Spanish language TV ad campaign attacking Bush's record on education and jobs for the Latino community.
In one ad, a young Latina schoolgirl asks Bush in Spanish, "Why have you broken your promise?" _ referring to his 2000 campaign promise to spend $18 billion on the nation's poorest schools. In another, a young Latino male sees the positive changes in his neighborhood that could take place if Democrats regained power.
The two commercials will initially run in Albuquerque, N.M., Phoenix and Las Vegas. Both will only appear in Spanish, on Spanish-language TV stations.
NDN previously ran ads in the Orlando Spanish-language market to great effect. The Democrats ability to lock in the Latino vote will be key in 2004. Essentially, they will be the margin of victory in Florida and Arizona.