Howard Dean will soon announce the details of his post-campaign group. The full-cycle from an asterisk with an internet-fueled candidacy, to a frontrunner campaign on the verge, to an also-ran, now ends. From the shell of one of the greatest insurgent movements ever, Dean will emerge under a new organizational structure. Roy Neel is the executive in charge of the transition, and is guiding the formation of the new organization. What that means is that Gore and Dean are closer than ever, that Trippi's influence has completely waned, and that the decentralized netroots effort is no longer a guiding force from within Howard Dean organization.
Burlington's DFA is in its last days, the current HQ lease ends with March, and close to none of the HQ staff remain, even longtime Governor Dean office workers are moving on. Not a single person on the HQ's webteam of "wizards & stars" is staying on with the new organization. Check out the blog, and you'll find a couple of Iowa field crewmembers that landed off the bus in Burlington, and are now volunteering to run BFA. The outgoing transition for DFA staff was non-existent. Being placated by the smooth talking Neel, a few former DFA staffers have lingered on, enjoying the free-flowing presence of Dean in the office, perhaps expecting `the movement' to continue; but the implicit transition message --not unfriendly-- that's been given to them is to transition your way to the door.
What Dean and Gore's Neel appear to be doing is forming a non-campaign organizational staff of about 30-35, and composed of sidelined allies. The move, with a lower prioritized webteam comprised of three, abandons the Trippi-led decentralized netroots structure of DFA in favor of something more establishment-like in structure, leaving the decentralized netroots movement to run on its own, outside their command.
Dean will support Kerry this November (they are meeting next week in DC), but Dean, like everyone, knows the March potential of Kerry could be an empty November promise of Bush. It's plausible. Nader polls 2-3 times his 2000 showing in two recent polls--probably a high water mark, but still. Kerry might do everything right that he could, and still wind up losing a plurality victory to Bush 8 months from now. The GOP, like the LA Lakers, has been off its game for months, but the only peak that matters is in the playoffs.
Perhaps this analysis is tilting at windmills -(like that Iowa prediction, ha)- and nominee Kerry will build a unity bridge in 2004 that makes the difference, wins the Presidency and make us all happy campers. The stated rationale for Dean's new organization will be to "hold Kerry's feet to the fire" and it should, throughout the election, and even more so during the possible Kerry Presidency. If Kerry really wants the Presidency, he'll give Dean power and a pulpit.
Howard Dean, in making such a clean break from the decentralized netroots origins within which he rose to national prominence, and embracing Gore's out-of-power establishment even further, solidifies an out-of-power alliance that would seek to fill the leadership void in the wake of a 2004 Kerry defeat. Dean's DNC-like organization will be Plan B for January of 2005 for the Democratic Party and the DNC (not to mention, there's also a plan that starts with a C).