Analysts, pundits, and pollsters are comparing Falluja to Mogadishu ("Black Hawk Down"). They are predicting that the images of Americans being mutilated in Iraq could powerfully shake U.S. public support for the occupation and may play into the presidential campaign. Examples:
- "Gruesome Iraq Images Could Shake U.S. Opinion" Reuters
- "Killings challenge US will" Christian Science Monitor
- "Grisly video could shake confidence" USA Today
- "Bush should beware the Mogadishu effect" - Howard Fineman, MSNBC
Four days after the Moadishu events, Clinton withdrew the troops from Somalia. Bush, of course will do the opposite in Iraq.
The White House vowed to "stay the course," and US Gen Mark Kimmitt, the US military spokesman in Baghdad did some serious saber rattling, vowing to not let the Falluja killers go unpunished. He said the response would be overwhelming, "at the time and place of our choosing..." and that Falluja will be "pacified."
My guess is that the Bushies will give the military carte blanche to respond forcefully to the recent events in Falluja. The resultant cycles of violence will continue to erode U.S. support for the Iraq occupation.