I went for a haircut today, at the old barber shop in town. Its six chairs stay busy all day every day, with a long line of customers waiting for a cut from barbers who seem to range in age from 45 to 75. It's very much an establishment place.
I always wait for one particular barber. He's a quietly friendly guy, extremely neat and carefully groomed. I figured him to be in his mid-fifties and was startled when he told me he has a 39-year-old daughter.
Anyway, on my way to the chair, I grabbed a magazine with a cover story on Kerry and opened to the article. When "Joe" saw it, he said mildly, "I just don't like the look of him."
"He is a bit jowlly, isn't he?" I responded.
"Yeah, I don't know what it is. I just don't like the look of him."
There followed a mild conversation. Ted said that he didn't like pushing his opinions on anyone; that his daughter was a diehard Democrat; that they both enjoyed having political discussions together, which his wife termed arguments; that the daughter often emailed them articles from The Misleader, which his wife immediately deleted but he read.
We avoided any mention of political issues, focusing instead on the impressions politicians make. I said that I didn't like it when politicians posed. Every time I saw Kerry on a motorcycle, it looked to me like he was posing, even though I knew he'd ridden motorcycles for years. I felt the same when President Bush put on the flight suit and posed on the aircraft carrier. "Yeah, I didn't like that either," said Ted.
Our conversation got me thinking about voters like Joe. They get most of their news from the nightly telecasts, or, in Joe's case, from talking with his customers, a solid majority of whom I would guess are conservative. I'd bet just about anything that he voted for Bush in 2000, but I'm not sure Bush can count on his vote in 2004. But how do we win over the Joes out there? How likely will their decision be based upon which candidate they find more likeable? Will facts on the ground trump likeability this year? Will the general opinion of many voters be that, while Bush may be a good feller, he isn't up to the job? Will he seem increasingly less likeable to voters with friends and family in the military, or to firemen angered by his broken promises?
Even though I'm thrilled by Bush's tanking approval ratings, I remain convinced that his election prospects are more closely tied to right direction/wrong direction poll numbers. He has been such a dismal failure, in the eyes of more and more people who persist in liking him personally. My hope is that, come November, voters like Joe will decide that being a likeable guy isn't enough this time.