The Des Moines Register (definite Republican slant) released a new poll in their Sunday edition
http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20040725/NEWS09/407250348/1001&lead=1
Bush 46%
Kerry 45%
Nader 2%
Undecided 7%
It's likely voters, perhaps explaining some of the discrepancies with earlier competing polls. A February Register poll had Kerry up by 7 points. Other more recent polls show Kerry up slightly (2-4% in some). A Strategic Vision survey released yesterday showed Kerry 48%/Bush 46% in Iowa: http://www.kcrg.com/article.aspx?art_id=86144&cat_id=123
Aside from the horserace numbers, the survey relaeased today seems consistent with earlier Iowa survey results and national polls, e.g., Bush's 47% approval/49% disapproval. Also, Kerry has a 7 point lead with independents. So, I am not overly concerned and I think Kerry should ultimately win here. Still, I wish we had a comfortable lead.