Many of us here at dKos share mixed feelings about the current state of the presidential race: We're thrilled by Kerry's leads in polls and Bush's terrible re-elect numbers. More importantly, we're excited by the energy generated by the Kerry-Edwards campaign, particularly those wonderful photos from their Southwest whistle stops.
But, we add, what about The Surprise?
I think we're all familiar with the most popular guesses about October surprises, be they realistic or tinfoil: Bin Laden caught, terrorist attack, Cheney found to have no heart and replaced by Guiliani or Powell, etc. More have been offered here, and there are even more in Rove's PowerPoint presentation to the Bushco board of directors.
But the point of this humble diary is to calm fears, if I can, by pointing out the relative success of Bushco's tactics over the past year or so.
1. President Top Gun: Bush's aircraft carrier stunt was a mixed success at the outset. Now it's perceived as a dismal failure, a premature, immature attempt to make Iraq fine cause I say so. I'd argue that this is where Bush jumped the shark, and after people realize you have jumped the shark, your credibility is shot with all but the true believers.
(Jumping the shark, for those who don't know, refers to the Happy Days episode where Fonzie jumped a shark tank on his motorcycle. It was a pathetic attempt by the show's producers to regain audiences that had tired of the show, and it signaled a desperation that would never go away.)
- Mission to Mars: A grand idea offered without any thought, this initiative was floated and sank almost immediately. How do you pay for something like this--how can you justify it--when your deficit is growing out of control? Besides, it was obvious that Bush didn't care about it.
- Gay Marriage: Intended by Rove as the quintessential cultural issue to divide the electorate and hurt the Democrats, but the Republicans are on the losing side here, and Bush's push for a constitutional amendment never played well with moderate voters.
- Capturing Saddam: They caught Bogeyman #1 and all they got was this lousy t-shirt and a blip in the polls.
- Delaying the Election: No one liked this idea. I even heard Rush poo-poo it.
- Slogans of the Week: We're confident about America, as our attack ads show. Don't change horses in midstream, even if you can't stand Cheney. We've turned the corner, and since we've turned it, and, um, we're looking forward, um, there's no need to talk about that corner any more. When we get to another corner, we'll let you know.
- We Are Now at Terror Level Fuchsia: Bushco has so politicized its timing and employment of terror alerts that, well, everyone dismisses them as political tools.
And of course, there are many more that I have forgotten. But as I said above, once people realize that you have jumped the shark, your credibility is lost. If Bid Laden had been captured a year ago, I'd bet a majority of Americans would see it as evidence that Bush is the right man for a difficult time. But now, I think a majority will think it too little too late, and they'll be more than a little suspicious that this elusive arch-terrorist was conveniently caught
right after the Republican convention, or
just before the Election.
If I haven't calmed your fears, you aren't alone. I remain fearful, too, and I won't relax until I hear Bush concede (on or about 9 PM EST on November 2). But the winds have changed. And remember, Fonzie made it over the tank. The sharks didn't eat him. But Bush's stunt looks stupider and stupider every day.