Petey's Tradesports Arbitrage

You've got to lock up some cash for the next 80 days, but here's a damn good opportunity:

The bet is that that Bush will win Florida, but lose one or more of the following states:  Virginia, North Carolina, Arkansas, or Tennessee.

The payoff is 20 to 1.  That seems like damn good odds to me for this bet.  Here's how to do it:

You buy Bush to win Florida, at about $5.00 per contract.

You sell an equal amount of Bush South state baskets.  These contracts say that Bush will win all of a group of Southern states, including FL, VA, NC, AR, and TN, at about $5.50 per contract.

So your cost for one of each contract is $10.50.

If Kerry wins Florida, you win one and lose one, receiving $10.00 for a net loss of $.50.

If Bush wins Florida and sweeps all of the Southern states, you win one and lose one, receiving $10.00 for a net loss of $.50.

And now for the good part: if Bush wins Florida but doesn't sweep the Southern states, you win both, receiving $20.00 for a net gain of $9.50.

So your maximum loss is $.50, but if the bet pays off, you collect $9.50.  I'd say the odds of the bet paying off are better than 19 - 1.

Good luck, and remember that Petey does not offer investment advice.  All risk is your own.