Hi Folks,
I wanted to discuss an issue that's been on my mind for awhile, which is the expected election turnout for the 2004 Presidential Election.
My thesis is that while many national polls continue to show an essentially even race -- perhaps marginally pro-Kerry -- I think that this may be misleading. Rather, I believe that because Democrats are generally so mad and unhappy with this President, we may be underestimating Kerry's edge at this point.
As such, the GOTV effect in 2004 may be more powerful than we have seen in awhile. Consequently, a 46-44% edge in the polls with 45% Dems/45% Reps, becomes a 47-43% lead if the proportion of Democratic v. Republican vote is 46-44% instead.
So, for all the talk of the few undecideds in this election...isn't this really about turning out the base, after all? And as the counterpoint, how powerful will be "mobilizing issues" for Bush's religious conservative base (e.g., gay marriage)? Could it counter-balance the Democratic anger? Thoughts?