In Penn. Kerry 47% Bush 47% Nader 2%
In Wisci Bush 48% Kerry 45% Nader 4%
In Iowa Kerry 51% Bush 45% Nader 2%
Those are for Likely voters
For registered voters:
Penn Kerry 49% Bush 43% Nader 3%
Wisci Kerry 47% Bush 45% Nader 4%
Iowa Kerry 50% Bush 44% Nader 2%
Clearly, Gallups likely voter model is really favoring heavy GOP turnout with weak Democratic turnout. Something their own data appraising the "enthusiasm" of the two parties conflicts with.
Bush, we shall see on Nov. 2nd if their turnout model is any good. I doubt it.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2004-08-29-poll.htm