There are indications that the Iraqi insurgents are being given time to entrench (further), and solidify their control of major cities, to keep U.S. losses low before the election. After the election, apparently all hell will break loose, as the U.S. storms Fallujah. This is, at least, the opinion of Retired Gen. Joseph Hoare, the former Marine commandant and head of the U.S. Central Command according to an excellent
Sidney Blumenthal article/interview:
Gen. Hoare believes from the information he has received that "a decision has been made" to attack Fallujah "after the first Tuesday in November. That's the cynical part of it -- after the election. The signs are all there."
The junta has no plans to lose power through any election, but if that were to happen, it seems likely that they would still feel the need to escalate the violence. Like the previous attack on Fallujah, which strengthened the insurgents, a new round of bombing and urban ground combat will make the eventual withdrawal more costly. From the GOP perspective, they will be able to claim that we (Kerry) lost Iraq because we were unwilling to let the military win. A refrain they use for Viet Nam. Interestingly in Viet Nam, one could have actually annihilated the entire population and "won". In Iraq, that type of victory would not work, because Islam connects Iraqis with a third of the world.