There have been great diary entries by others about Gallup's flaws. I thought it would behoove us to take a page out of the Republican playbook and come up with some simple bulleted talking points about Galup. Hopefully, these will get to Democrats who have to go on TV tomorrow.
So with credit to those who have enlightened me, below the jump is my condensed version.
Let me know if I've missed anything and I'll update.
1)
Gallup is stunningly incompetent:
-- One week before the 2000 elections Gallup showed Bush leading by 13 points.
-- They also had Dewey beating Truman.
-- It's a wonder anyone takes them seriously as a pollster.
2) There is clearly something wrong with their methodolgy:
-- 14 of the last 16 Gallup polls have been the most pro-Bush of any taken at the same time. The odds of that happening randomly are about 1 in 14,000
-- They have consistently oversampled Republicans in their polls -- despite the fact that self-identified Democrats have been at least equal to self-identified Republicans in the every national election of the last 20 years, Gallup chooses to poll more self-identified Republicans than Democrasts.
-- In fact, in the 2000 election, 39% of the electorate described themselves as Democrats and 35% as Republicans. If you weight Gallup polls to those numbers, Kerry would be leading in most of their surveys.
3) Gallup's likely voter model has been discredited:
-- The formula by which they determine who is a likely voter is bizzare and complex and always inaccurate.
-- Their last poll showed Bush voters 10% more likely to vote than Kerry voters despite the fact that the eletion-day difference between the parties hasn't been more than 4% since at least 1992.
-- Their likely voter model almost certainly leaves out those who didn't vote in 2000 so they aren't even sampling a representative electorate.
4) Gallup is run by a right-wing Republican.
-- Gallup is no longer run by the legendary Frank Gallup. They now are run by a right-wing CEO who has given money this year to support the right wing agenda. This bias is reflected in the polling.
5) Every other poll has shown movement toward Kerry.
-- Bush is fading because of the wrong choices he made in Iraq and the wrong direction he has taken the economy. No flawed poll can change that.
-- The American people will decide on election day whether they want to continue the current direction. They will hold Bush accountable and they will further discredit Gallup.