Now with bolded
name-dropping! The results are trickling in from Hawaii, where the polls closed for the primary elections a couple of hours ago. Preliminary results & predictions below the cut.
Daniel Inouye will win his primary easily against a couple of token challengers; at press time he had 95% of the vote, although only about 1/3 of the votes had been counted. In the general he'll face a Republican, a Libertarian and a nonpartisan challenger, but as usual he'll win the race without breaking a sweat.
Neil Abercrombie (House District 1) was unopposed in the primary. He'll face off in the general against Dalton Tanonaka, a Republican, and Elyssa Young, the Libertarian candidate. Abercrombie hasn't had to worry about reelection in years, either, so I expect a big win for him on Nov 2 as well.
Both Ed Case (incumbent Dem) and Mike Gabbard (wingnut extraordinaire) look to be winning their primaries easily, with 96% and 81% of the vote, respectively. Republican turnout for District 2 looks to be only about a quarter of Democratic turnout, which might bode well for the general; however, since you get to pick your ballot when you show up to vote (Hawaii doesn't record party registration), a lot more people might have taken Dem ballots because that's where the fun races are. A nonpartisan candidate is on the ballot as well, but she's only getting a tiny number of votes. I continue to predict that Case will win the general easily; Hawaii has Gabbard's number by now.
Peter Carlyle will wrap up the race for Honolulu prosecutor this evening - only one other candidate filed, so there's no need for a general election runoff. With almost 40% of the ballots counted, he's winning with over 60% of the vote. It's within the realm of possibility that this one'll turn around as more results come in, but unlikely.
In the Honolulu Mayoral race, my man Duke Bainum is in the lead, but it doesn't look like he'll pull of the 50% plus one vote he needs to avoid a runoff on Nov 2 against Mufi Hanneman. The Honolulu Mayoral race is run as an open primary, with all candidates running on the same ticket. Predictions for the general are hard to make; Duke has been polling a consistent lead in the last couple of months, but it's hard to say which of the leading candidates loses more votes to "Uncle Frank" Fasi, a former Honolulu mayor who's pulling around 10% of the votes.
In the state House, Republican Brian Blundell (famous for groping an undercover cop in a public bathroom) didn't draw any primary challengers, but did draw two Dem challengers. Only 25% of the vote is in for this race, but Kam Tanaka, a former security guard and first-time candidate is in the lead.
Most other state House incumbents won their primaries, but Gabbard-watchers might like to note that Mike Gabbard's daughter, Tulsi Gabbard-Tamayo, seems to be losing her primary in District 42, garnering only 23% of the votes with 54% counted. The only other state House incumbent looking to lose their primary this year is Romeo M. Mindo from District 43, Ewa Beach. Update [2004-9-19 2:29:46 by cyclopatra]: My dad tells me that Tamayo withdrew from the race, as she's being called up for active duty in Iraq. She apparently tried to get an exception from the DoD to continue her candidacy, since she's an incumbent, but they said no-go, so she dropped out, although it was too late to take her off the ballot.
In the state Senate, most incumbents are winning their primaries. The exceptions are Cal Kawamoto and Melodie Aduja, who both became mired in campaign finance scandals close to the election.
I don't know much about local races off Oahu. Full results of today's primary are here.
Update [2004-9-19 4:6:43 by cyclopatra]:Update #2 for Gabbard family watchers: I've been informed that Carol Gabbard, Mike Gabbard's wife, didn't run for reelection to the Board of Education because "she plans to move to Washington with her husband" (who is currently polling about 30-40 points behind Case). Considering she fought against anti-harassment rules to protect gay & lesbian students and supported teaching creationism, I have to say I'm glad to see her go.