From politicswny.com
New York Assemblyman Brian Higgins moves to the head of the list of Democratic takeaway opportunities on the strength of a new survey, conducted September 15-16, among 503 likely general election voters (error margin, +/-4.4 pts.).
The 27 District, plurality-Democratic to begin with, needs, understands, and clamors for the kind of change that a Democratic Congress represents.
These are the key findings: Brian Higgins leads Nancy Naples by a 48% to 43% margin, with 9% undecided, outperforming John Kerry, who finishes in a 45%/45% tie with President Bush.
Against a backdrop of restiveness and dissatisfaction -- 76% describe things in this part of western New York as off on the wrong track -- a 45% plurality of voters choose the Democrat in the generic trial heat (37% choose the GOP).
Assemblyman Higgins leads despite the fact that Naples is 10 points better known (86%) than he is (76%). This 5-point edge grows to 11 points (52%Higgins to 41% Naples) among those who recognize both candidates.
Conclusion: Certainly Nancy Naples is a strong opponent and Republicans will empty the bank in an effort to hold this one. But this is the year Democrats can finally reclaim this seat, behind the formidable profile of Brian Higgins and Western New York's call for change. We have the lead. Now we need the resources to hold it.