There is something strange and powerful about Hurricane Katrina. For all the talk of peak oil and gas prices, and what we can consciously and actively do about them, we are now in a position of paralysis. We are incapable of changing the course of this hurricane, and also unable to get in its way. And it seems to be on a direct course to wreck (at least temporarily) our economy.
Yesterday, I was puzzling over Friday reports that oil prices went down, due to Katrina looking like it would miss the Gulf of Mexico oil operations. I was puzzling on this because at the same time a new wave of stories were breaking that Katrina has turned west, directly in the path of key oil infrastructure, perhaps almost 30% of it in the U.S.
"The real issue - that I don't think the nation is paying attention to - is that through the city of New Orleans, through the Gulf of Mexico, we probably deal with almost a third of the nation's domestic oil that is produced. And that will most likely be shut down," [Mayor of New Orleans] Mr. Nagin said.
"So, this can have a significant impact on oil prices going forward," he added.
Reading that blurb definitely sobered me up this morning, as I already knew that oil operations in the Gulf were targets, but hadn't realized the extent of New Orlean's involvement (obvious really in reflection), and the overall disastrous impact if the dikes break and New Orleans is submerged:
The city's distinct terrain makes it particularly vulnerable to the storm surges, heavy rains and high winds of a hurricane. With more than a million people in its suburbs and center, the city is surrounded on three sides by water, and lies below sea level in a bowl-shaped basin. Pumps would fail if the storm surge of up to 25 feet overwhelmed the city's levees.
"That's why we are taking this unprecedented move," Mayor Ray Nagin said at a news conference that was broadcast live. "The storm surge most likely will topple our levee system."
So, that really got me thinking, so I poked around some more. Here is what I found:
If Hurricane Katrina holds true to predictions and tracks north through the toe of Louisiana's boot, much of the nation's oil and natural gas infrastructure will be exposed to 140 mile per hour winds, 30- to 50-foot waves, and water current speeds of around 20 knots all the way from the surface to the sea floor.
"This storm is going to pass through the meat of the oil and gas fields. The whole country will feel it, because it's going to cripple us and the country's whole economy," said Capt. Buddy Cantrelle with Kevin Gros Offshore, which supplies rigs via a fleet of large crew vessels.
The equipment located in the storm's likely path includes the bulk of the nation's oil and gas production platforms, thousands of miles of pipelines and -- perhaps most importantly for national gasoline prices -- much of the country's refinery capacity. In addition, the south Louisiana coastline serves as the entry point for around a third of the nation's imported oil.
Talk about a single point of failure. I don't know what Pat Robertson thinks about this, in terms of God's wrath for one too many Mardi Gras celebrations, but this is surely going to be humbling for us if predictions remain true to mark. At the moment, we can do nothing about this. Nothing. Makes you think about the legend of Atlantis, and the possibility that they were hit with a huge hurricane they never saw coming, destroying the whole place, wiping away all the settlements and structures, killing just about everyone, and leaving it submerged. At least we can track these things and get people out, save lives.
But we can't save the infrastructure. And one wonders what would have happened if there was some kind of military or terrorist strike against New Orleans, but maybe our military and civilian planners have thought this out. Whatever the case, we have a single point of geographic failure in the Gulf of Mexico and New Orleans area, and it's looking increasingly likely it's going to get tested.
Whatever happens, we need to start engaging and dealing with our activities that accelerate global warming, and we especially need to focus on transforming and rebuilding our energy economy, and the energy economy of the future, to be more sustainable, resilient and distributed (in terms of production and refinement). If we innovate and encourage self-sustaining local and regional centers of energy production and distribution, as with the emerging models of solar and other renewables, we will be in a far better place, whether we are being targeted by hostile militaries, terrorists, or the unfathomable power of Mother Nature.
Oh, and let's all hope and pray that the worst-case does not happen, especially for those people who stand to lose everything if their homes and possessions wash away.
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Update [2005-8-28 19:51:7 by freelixir]:
I don't want to sound like a prophet of doom, so I'll let someone else do it (from the comments):
"If this thing knocks out significant quantities of refining capacity ... we're going to be in deep, dark trouble," said Ed Silliere, vice president of risk management at Energy Merchant LLC in New York.
The market has been on edge for months, with traders and speculators buying on the slightest fear. With Katrina, all those fears could be realized, Beutel said.
"Basically I could spill a can of oil at my local gas station and you'd see the price of crude go up by $1 per barrel," he said, predicting futures would likely top $70 per barrel in coming sessions.
To put it simply, the reason why gas prices often go up, especially in the summer months, is not always the price of oil, but the availability of refineries and other infrastructure. We are pretty much operating already at 100% demand in the summer months, which is why if any chink in the infrastructure goes down, gas prices go up (a lot in places like California). If we have a catastrophic event that puts down more than a handful of refineries, I wouldn't be surprised to see gas prices in California approach $5 (it sounds insane, but it's possible in short-term).
Mountain Bikes (Ultralight...Ride The Wind)
With that in mind, I suggest we start looking for some alternative transportation, and nothing is more innovative and dynamic then the next-generation mountain bikes being introduced to the market. We're talking ultra-light frames, so you feel like you're riding on the wind. Why not save some gas money, and instead buy yourself a top of the line mountain bike, or one of the city and urban hybrids that are starting to hit the market and explode in popularity, and just drive your car when you really need to? We're in desperate need of lifestyle leaders, people who will walk (or ride) the talk, and show the way to how we can do things, and why we should build more people and bike friendly cities, and I for one have been riding proudly to work for 3 years now (sometimes rack it on the bus for longer distances).
Here's a link to the best bikes out there...Kona (their website is awesome too).
http://www.konaworld.com/index.cfm
Other top manufacturers are Marin and Turner (formerly GT).
Sustainable Cuisine and Oil
Last, many of you may not realize the extent that food production, and the Green revolution, relies on cheap petroleum. All the fertilizers and chemicals in the pesticides are generally produced from petroleum. Stupendously high oil prices are going to put a serious crimp into the current system of food production. We need to be proactive, and join forces with those who are promoting more sustainable, organic, and local food chains.
One place to start reading up on this is from a legend in Newport Beach by the name of Phil Perota (who incidentally just joined DailyKos today, and will be writing next week). He's been manufacturing and making his Power Pancake (the newest and best: Chocolate Hempseed!), with all local and mostly orgnanic ingredients, for almost 20 years, out of Newport Beach, not to mention tirelessly promoting whole foods, fitness, exercise, bicycling, and sustainable, people-friendly cities and architecture as an integrated lifestyle.
Other great resources to get up to speed with sustainable food and agriculture are Wes Jackson, Slow Food, Alice Waters (America's "green goddess"), and the compendium of white papers in Sustainable Cuisine:
This elegant and informative book is the perfect introduction to the concept of sustainability - the meaning of which is self-evident but a working and uniform definition elusive. Brief, highly readable, thought-provoking essays examine the world's food system ranging from global to regional issues from the points of views of producers, politicians, activists, chefs, scientists, and educators. An excellent publication and an excellent gift. I gave copies as Christmas presents last year.
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Oh, how could I forget...one last link:
Bikes Belong!