I was planning on releasing a much more elaborate and longer diary within the next month, with the results from a poll I sent to every legislator, but it doesn't look like many of them will respond, and many haven't even decided yet. Here's a summary.
Early last year, a constitutional convention held 3 sessions. Nothing was done at the first, and all of the conservative proposals to ban gay marriage were narrowly defeated. But at the second, the legislators began to compromise, and the final version of the constitutional amendment was passed in late March, at the third session. The margin was 105-92. The number of votes required is 101. The amendment would establish civil unions, which give ~300 protections to gay couples, as opposed to marriage, which gives over a thousand. In doing so, it would also ban same-sex marriage.
In our state, it will also require a second vote in this session's legislature to approve the amendment. After that, it will go to the voters in 2006. Gay marriage supporters gained 2 legislative seats the last election, bringing support for the measure to just 103. Also, three anti-equality legislators have resigned since the election. Special elections are to be held in March and April.
The dynamics of public support have also changed quite a bit, as this Globe report points out:
Advocates for gay marriage and those working to reverse the 14-month-old court ruling legalizing same-sex unions agree that a confluence of events over the last year has significantly changed the political landscape around the controversial issue. But unlike in other states, where same sex-marriage has caused a backlash, the circumstances appear to favor marriage supporters in Massachusetts, the only state that has legalized gay marriage.
The events include: a fall campaign for Legislature in which the issue was not a major factor in most races; a new House speaker who supports gay marriage; US Senator John F. Kerry's loss in the presidential election, eliminating the need for Bay State Democrats to provide him with political cover on the issue; and a smooth implementation of the court ruling legalizing marriage.
"There's a new dynamic here," House Speaker Salvatore F. DiMasi, a Democrat, said in an interview. "Gay marriage has been in effect for a long time, and the world hasn't collapsed. That might be an influence."
Time is on our side. In Massachusetts, all time will do is prove to an increasing number of people that gay marriage has not destroyed society. Let's take the two most recent UMass polls:
As people realize that Gay Marriage doesn't mean anarchy and chaos in the streets, they increasingly support gay marriage. If the legislature votes down this amendment, Massachusetts (if it isn't already) can be a model for the country.
While lawmakers and advocates are not ready to make a firm prediction, supporters of gay marriage are expected to get a significant boost from what many insiders say is a group of at least a
half-dozen lawmakers who initially voted for the amendment but are giving serious thought to switching their positions. Even Lees, one of the
cosponsors, said last fall he was reconsidering his position.
Those lawmakers who are considering changing their positions had voted for the amendment either because they were worried about a political backlash from their constituents or because of their loyalty to House and Senate leaders, according to lawmakers and strategists. But the political turmoil that engulfed the State House last winter never spilled over into the legislative elections. In fact, the only backlash came against two antigay marriage incumbent House members who were defeated by advocates for gay marriage.
So, to summarize:
- The final vote last session to outlaw gay marriage and allow civil unions passed 105-92. It requires another vote before it goes to the people
- Pro-equality legislators posted a two seat gain last election, bringing supporters to 103 out of a required 101.
- Three anti-equality legislators have resigned since the elections. Special elections will be held for these seats before the vote on gay marriage takes place. Governor Romney and the Republicans have proven extremely ineffectual at getting Republicans elected in Massachusetts, even after record fundraising.
- The last vote took place before same-sex marriages were allowed to take place. It also took place when the approximately 170-30 Democratic-controlled legislature wanted to give John Kerry the cover of a gay marriage ban to help his election.
- Up to half a dozen pro-ban legislators, including a cosponsor, are reconsidering their positions after Kerry's loss and the pro-equality election.
- Eight social conservatives who opposed the amendment on the last vote show no signs of changing.
- If it goes to the ballot in 2006, it already has 45% of voters opposing it due to reasons of equality, another 14% opposing it due to bigotry (don't want civil unions), and another 14% who don't care, who can be mobilized by good ad campaigns. We can also get a good chunk of the pro-civil union vote with good ad campaigns than invoke sympathy and underline the difference between civil unions and gay marriage and what it means to happily married couples.
Weighing all the evidence, barring some unforeseen event, it looks like marriage equality in Massachusetts is here to stay!