The PA-8th is one of the best pick-up chances in PA (the 6th is the only better that I see), and one of the best in the nation as well. It's gotten a lot of media attention and blogging activity, so here is a brief run down of the race as it stands, before the Sept 30th numbers come out. I'm a native of Bucks, so this is the race I'm going to be "covering" the most in the upcoming year.
PA-8th: The 8th is where I live, when not at school, and is a race in which I have already personally invested myself, and will continue to do so. Mike Fitzpatrick (R), is the current representative for this district that contains all of Bucks County, two wards of Northeast Philadelphia, and a small sliver of Montgomery County (again, the result of the 2000 redistricting). Fitzpatrick is a former roommate of Rick Santorum, and tends to hold the Tom DeLay line - ignoring the rather moderate district he represents. Now, he is, at least in person, a great and nice guy. Does a look of work with the Boy Scouts, etc. One of the most common arguments for him is this quality, but in the end, that does not make an effective representation. Before Fitzpatrick, the district was represented by a moderate Republican, Jim Greenwood, who had widespread support among both parties. His retirement, and the opening of this seat, caused widespread surprise.
Currently, 3 Democrats are declared for this race. Paul Lang, Patrick Murphy, and Andy Warren.
Paul Lang: Lang, a retired Coast Guard officer (he was injured during action off the coast of Alaska, then went to work in Washington), has been running since a month or so into this past summer. As of the last FEC filing date (the next is Sept 30th), he had roughly 35,000 dollars, 30,000 of which he loaned to the campaign. In some areas of Bucks, including parts of Warminster and I believe Northhampton, he has begun to pick up traction among party activists. He is the son of very active democrats. His positions are typically progressive, including working to support the middle class, strong ties to unions, health care reform, a harsh view of CAFTA, and the like.
Patrick Murphy Murphy is a former 82nd Airborne member, who served in Iraq and Bosnia, was awarded a Bronze star among other awards, taught Constitutional Law at West Point, worked as a staffer in the PA state house, and is currently a lawyer in Philadelphia. He's been running since the beginning of this past summer, and has collected endorsements from a Republican Army General and the Democrat County Commissioner, Sandy Miller. As of the last FEC date, he had raised roughly 100,000 dollars (3x or 4x more than any democrat for this race at this time in the campaign). He is known by activists in the county because he worked with many of them during the Kerry campaign, where he was a veterans coordinator.
Andy Warren: Warren is a former Republican, just recently turned democrat. He is a former county commissioner, and rumors abound that the reason he is now a democrat is that he was ignored for the Republican nomination for the 8th's seat. Rumors also say he is being courted by DC and perhaps the DCCC, who, I suppose, may see him as a "moderate" and one who could "appeal" to voters in the district.
The race, currently: This is becoming one of the most targeted races in the state, and nation. No real numbers have come out yet, but in general the district is thought to be moderate enough that a member of either party could win. Current momentum seems to be with Murphy, although that could change. There have been a couple of other candidate possibilities floated, and the chair of the Bucks County Democratic party says it's quite likely someone else will declare before the primary. One candidate, Ginny Schrader, has dropped out. As the 2004 candidate, she received wide blogging support, but did not feel she had the energy to pursue the race again. Some local party higher ups may have had issues with her as well, but that's never been confirmed.
Elections Results:
2004:
Fitzpatrick (R): 56%
Schrader (D): 43%
2002:
Greenwood (R): 67%
Reece (D): 33%
2000:
Greenwood (R): 60%
Strouse (D): 39%