We're serious. We mean it. We're not just fucking around this time. No, really.
Deep in this NYTimes article, an unnamed American official states:
The official added: "We have had people for years sending them messages telling them to change their behavior. And they don't seem to recognize the seriousness of those messages. The hope is that Syria gets the message."
Now maybe it's just me, but if you tell me for years and years that I'd better change my behavior or else, and I never change and there's absolutely no consequence, then when you come back to me the next time with another this-time-you-mean-it declaration, then I'm going to laugh in your face. Especially if I know your military is stretched ass-thin and your president is the laughing-stock of his own country.
The whole thing reeks of some kind of priggish Victorian finger-wagging. I have no love for Syria, but the people quoted in this article seem to be ignoring the realities of middle-eastern politics. The same official says:
"Our policy is to get Syria to change its behavior," said a senior administration official. "It has failed to change its behavior with regard to the border with Iraq, with regard to its relationships with rejectionist Palestinian groups, and it has only reluctantly gotten the message on Lebanon."
I'm not intimate with the details of the Syrian political landscape, but my understanding is that in most middle-eastern countries, support for even the more radical Palestinian groups is widespread. Expecting Assad to denounce them would be like expecting Bush to denounce freedom. And Syria's broader power in the region rests on that network to a large extent. So there's considerable incentive for them to continue down the path they're on, and given the state of our military, not much incentive for them to change.
Empty threats do little to increase the stature of the US. Instead they make us look hostile, uninformed, and unreasonable. Diplomacy has never been a strong suit of this administration, and this example exhibits why perfectly. We're never going to make much progress internationally until we start to recognize the interests of other nations and use those interests to further our own. We could start by earnestly seeking a real solution for the Palestinians.
That's the heart of diplomacy.