The last time Sherrod Brown ran statewide was in 1990, for re-election to the Secretary of States office, where he promptly lost to Bob "Mr Popular" Taft. Now Bob wasn't so unpopular back then, he hadn't had chance to get enough rounds of golf in. Anyhow, I decided to take a look at the data from that race, the votes by county, and thanks to the magic of Map Point we were able to plot the data onto the map of ohio.
We took the % of votes Brown got in each county and colorized it, the darker the blue, the higher his %, the darker the red the higher Tafts %, and the white represents the swing counties.
The real analysis of this races early dynamics in the extended.
Not a lot of blue there, I think we can all agree. given that we have hardly won a statewide race since, we can conclude that things certainly haven't improved, and may well have gotten worse for Democratic candidates - So how is a candidate that only has support in his NE bastion going to improve on that, beyond hoping for an even greater meltdown of the corruption plagued Ohio GOP ? Answer that question and you begin to realize that Brown is going to need a lot more than blogads, he might even have to dig into his pocket for some
wifi cards for farmers.
Now if we take a look at the penetration Hackett got in the 2nd district, it is obvious he created a different dynamic
It seems pretty clear to me that Hackett has the best shot at taking out DeWine, that is, if he can get out of a primary with Brown, who has the financial edge and at least the head start on establishment backing - a strong qtr of fundraising from the Hackett camp would end Browns ambitions I think, and dry up a lot of his financial support. Until then we are going to continue to see Browns strategy of going after the netroots aggressively to prevent this from happening, because he too knows that if he can't stop Hackett from raising the money he is toast.
It's a high risk strategy, and
doesn't look like it is gaining much traction right now - due to poor execution, but it's hard to think of a better plan.
The way I see this race right now is with 2 simple questions.
- Can Hackett raise enough money quick enough to be credible ?
- Can Brown convince people he can win statewide ?
This is why it is going to be nasty early on - and is nasty.
Brown has to try and prevent Hackett from catching up in dollars, and Hackett has to convince people Brown can't win.
Neither strategy leaves room for pleasantries right now - and it is going to get worse, from the side that perceives it is behind. right now given that AP article - it looks like Browns camp, especially if the rumors that Hackett has already raised $250k are true.
Update [2005-10-21 19:29:27 by Pounder]:Rumor has it that the
United Auto Workers are going to endorse Hackett, if this is true it is a huge development and cuts right into Browns power structure - Labor.
Update [2005-10-21 20:19:5 by Pounder]:
HackettForOhio.com is the official campaign website