Two recent articles in the Independent point to a looming energy disaster in Britain. The first warns of disruptions of oil and natural gas supplies this winter, causing business closures and job losses. The second is far more dire, predicting that the shortages could mean death for tens of thousands of Britons.
More after the jump.
"Lights could be going out all over Britain when fuel shortage hits businesses."
But the UK is about to become a net importer of both oil and gas, just as concerns over vital energy supplies are reaching crisis point, the forecasts are for a cold shock this winter, and the economy is running at its weakest pace for 13 years.
The UK became a net importer of oil in August for almost the first time in 25 years. Earlier blips were dwarfed by the £413m deficit.
The Houses of Parliament's science and technology office, an independent research unit, forecasts that Britain will revert to being a net gas importer next year. By 2010 the UK could be importing half its gas needs, and 80 per cent by 2020. snip
Last month Sir Digby Jones, head of the CBI, the largest employers' organisation, warned that "businesses will shut down, people will lose their jobs".
Domestic users have priority, so will never go cold. But most businesses have "interruptible" contracts with energy suppliers, and would be the first hit.
The second article predicts a bitter winter indeed,
Are we heading for a new winter of discontent?
Britain could be left paralysed by energy shortages, a health crisis and gridlock on the roads if the predicted Arctic winter strikes with severity.
Prolonged sub-zero temperatures after nearly a decade of mild winters could result in the death of tens of thousands of people, with fears that the National Health Service faces the prospect of a full-blown winter bed shortage for the first time since Labour came to power in 1997.
The Confederation of British Industry warned that power shortfalls caused by the rising domestic demand to keep warm and Britain's dwindling strategic stockpiles could lead to factory shutdowns and a return to the three-day week. At present, only 11 days' supply of gas is being held in reserve, compared with 55 days' worth elsewhere in Europe. Consumer groups fear that hardest hit will be members of the two million poor households already struggling to cope with the 40 per cent rise in energy prices since 2003.
snip
....the Meteorological Office took the unprecedented step of issuing a long-range forecast predicting the likelihood of a much harsher-than-average winter. The "amber alert" was based on lower-than-average sea temperatures recorded near Iceland and off the Azores this spring. The findings are a typical precursor for a phenomenon known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which has resulted in some of the harshest winters on record. The effects of the NAO were felt most spectacularly in 1963, when temperatures dropped as low as minus 22C, the Thames iced over and large swaths of southern England were blanketed more than a foot of snow for weeks on end. snip
An extra 8,000 deaths are anticipated for every one degree centigrade that the temperature falls below the winter average.snip
Forecasters say they are 67 per cent confident that this winter will be among the coldest on record.
These articles discuss two issues that are more or less predictable. The decline of North Sea oil and gas has been forecast for years. North Sea oil and gas both peaked in 2000. And the North Atlantic Oscillation is a periodic phenomenon that would inevitably be repeated; the only question is when.
You may recall that the last major oil discovery was the North Sea oil fields. The development of those fields, along with the completion of the Alaska pipeline, ended the 1970s oil crisis. This development was vital for the American economy, and it postponed the decline of the oil-age by several decades. But The North Sea fields were of truly monumental importance to Britain, which faced the same problems as the US, plus several others.
Britain was suffering from the decline in industrial production, immense labor troubles culminating in the "Winter of Discontent", and the effects of a global recession. Conservatives may argue that it was Margaret Thatcher's policies that revived Britain's economy, but most of us know that it was a massive influx of oil money that provided the greatest boost. "It has provided tax revenues of almost £200bn over that period in today's prices, equivalent to a fifth of current-day gross domestic product and nearly half of one year's current tax receipts." according to the Guardian. That boost stimulated a booming economy that made the UK a powerhouse of Europe.
But things are not looking so good these days. The economy is faltering, housing prices have fallen for 16 months straight, and the Anglo-Saxon economic model is in danger of foundering. The North Sea oil and gas fields are being depleted at an alarming rate. Here is the historical and projected production for the U.K.
And here is the same data for Norway, which shares these fields with Britain.
This is a chart of North Sea natural gas production. It's not easy to see on this chart, but Britain's share of gas is declining after peaking in 2000. This will hit electricity rates hard. Another factor in rising prices is that Europe's big utilities are paying top prices for prime North Sea gas assets, as they try to control their own supplies to lessen reliance on large producers like Russia.
As for the North Atlantic Oscillation, University of Reading's Climate Analysis Group says
For many of the past 15 years, a recurring pressure pattern has resulted in milder than normal winter temperatures in Western Europe. After El Nino, this pattern is one of the most dominant modes of global climate variability - referred to as the North Atlantic Oscillation
snip
It is also becoming clearer that some of the current day climate models are showing some encouraging ability to make probabilistic forecasts of the NAO a season ahead. What is not clear is why the NAO has become more positive over the last 30 years and there is some speculation that this may be a sign of human induced global warming. On the other hand, it could merely be natural climate variability.
Here is the NAO index for the last hundred plus years. Notice the dip around 1963, one of the coldest winters on record. This is the sort of dip forecasters say has a 67% chance of occurring this winter.
What does this have to do with Blair and oil? Well you may recall statements made in May of 2003 by Sir Jonathan Porritt. According to Bloomberg :
Sir Jonathan Porritt, head of the Sustainable Development Commission, which advises Blair's government on ecological issues, said the prospect of winning access to Iraqi oil was "a very large factor" in the allies' decision to attack Iraq in March.
``I don't think the war would have happened if Iraq didn't have the second-largest oil reserves in the world,'' Porritt said in a Sky News television interview.
Today we are seeing exactly why Blair thought it was necessary to go against the wishes of the vast majority of his countrymen and his party and align himself with one of the most hated American presidents in history. A combination of declining oil and gas production and a return to historical weather patterns could spell disaster Britain, if not this year, then soon. But it hasn't worked out as he planned. And now he may be forced to watch as Britain faces yet another "Winter of Discontent."
The US is not far behind. We produce far less of our own oil than Britain does. Soon Britain will be competing with China, and India, the rest of Europe and the US for the diminishing global supply of oil. The policies of our administration ensure that many of our poor will also die during a cold winter, even if there are no natural gas shortages.
Cross posted on European Tribune.