Tuesday evening weather highlights: The Not Quite Perfect Storm, frost in Mississippi and freeze in Alabama and Arkansas, another "area of interest" in the Caribbean...
Hurricane Wilma is still a hurricane, sort of. The NHC is done with her and has delegated her to the fine folks at the
Ocean Prediction Center are watching her remnants as they jet into the North Atlantic at 50-55 mph. And while this may be wishful thinking, the NHC believes that the Storm Formerly Known As Wilma will dissipate in four days. At any rate,
wind and wave analysis indicates waves up to 30' in the North Atlantic, and 21 feet off of Cape Cod.
The people of New England have not one, but two centers of circulation to deal with -- a mid-latitude storm fresh from the Midwest south of Cape Cod (981 mb, 40 N 71 W) and Wilma (976 mb, 41 N 67 W). The steepest pressure gradients (hence the highest winds) are near western Nova Scotia, though 25-30 mph with gusts to 40+ throughout New England is quite strong enough. Unlike the Perfect Storm (tm), these centers of circulation are expected to drift apart, Wilma turning eastward and the other center heading northeast. Good riddance to both.
Anyway, the NWS is prediction winds in the 30-35 mph range tonight over the Maine coast, with gusts to 55 or 60 mph. Winter storm warnings are up over higher elevations (over 1500 feet) as far south as Shenandoah Mountain, WV/VA. And, of course, plenty of rain for a region that does not need it.
Meanwhile, an area of thunderstorms in the western Caribbean has started to organize itself with a <strikethrough>1011 mb</strikethrough> 1009 mb low (at time of linking) on the east end of the convection and some banding. The low will enjoy toasty-warm 29 C water and little shear should it decide to develop. The GOES storm floater has taken an interest...could this become Tropical Storm Beta?
In other news, a trough is approaching the Pacific Northwest, bringing rain. Frost is expected along the Mississippi as far south as Natchez.
In approximate terms, a tropical system ceases being a tropical system when it acquires a cold front and its core stops being warmer than its surroundings. In meteospeak, that would be (I think) when the low enters a baroclinic zone and transitions from a warm-core to a cold-core system.
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