A.P. is reporting that Shiite cleric Ali al-Sistani is considering calling for U.S. forces to leave Iraq after the December 15th elections.
NAJAF, Iraq - Iraq's top Shiite cleric is considering demanding a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. and foreign troops after a democratically elected government takes office next year, according to associates of the Iranian-born cleric.
If the Americans and their coalition partners do not comply, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani would use peaceful means such as mass street protests to step up pressure for a pullout schedule, according to two associates of the cleric.
Juan Cole believes, if Sistani does issue this Fatwa, Bush will have
no choice but to pack it in.
If Sistani gives The Fatwa for a US withdrawal, the Bush administration will simply have to acquiesce. [...] Given the ongoing Sunni Arab guerrilla movement (which killed another 5 US GI's in the past couple of days), the US simply cannot keep troops in Iraq if the Shiites also begin vehemently demanding their departure. Any attempt by Bush and Rumsfeld to remain in Iraq in defiance of Sistani would certainly radicalize the Iraqi population and risk pushing it toward anti-American Muslim extremism both on the Shiite and the Sunni Arab fronts. [bold emphasis mine]
But, Cole cautions, this comes from Sistani's aides, not him directly.
A lot of sentiments are attributed to Sistani that he later has to deny, so we should be cautious about whether the aides have their own axe to grind.
Personally I think Bush will start withdrawing troops next year and probably would have even without the threat of Sistani's Fatwa. There is just too much pressure from the public and from Republicans up for reelection to stay on.