We here in Pennsylvania let a golden opportunity slip by in the spring of 2004. There wasn't much back-and-forth in the Democratic primary - Kerry already had it sewn up, Hoeffel was running unopposed, and the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia mayoral races were either over or just beginning.
On the other side of the aisle, things weren't so serene. Arlen Specter, a moderate Republican Senator, was getting raked over the coals by his primary challenger, Congressman Pat Toomey. Toomey, backed by the
Club for Growth ran a vitriolic campaign charging that Specter was a tax-and-spend liberal unworthy of conservative support- and nearly upset a four-term Senator. In the end, it was endorsements from George W. Bush and Specter's fellow Senator, Rick Santorum, that made the difference, and Arlen squeaked through with a margin of 17,000 votes. He went on to trounce Dem nominee Joe Hoeffel that November.
A lot of folks I liked and respected suggested that Dems such as myself re-register as Republicans and cast a vote for Toomey. The thinking was that, while Specter was a moderate with a base in SE PA and bipartisan support, Toomey was a radical Norquista who could easily be painted as out of step with Pennsylvania's values.
All those things were true, and I knew it. But silly things like a sense of propriety and fair play kept me from doing as my friends suggested, and from spreading the idea. I now regret that, and I wish all of us PA Dems had gotten into the act.
But now the repercussions from that primary are bearing real fruit. Via the Patriot-News:
A lingering feud within the Pennsylvania GOP over last year's heated U.S. Senate primary between Sen. Arlen Specter and former Rep. Pat Toomey is proving costly for Sen. Rick Santorum.
-snip-
Santorum and his closest advisers had not foreseen the conservatives' continued anger. Now, Santorum, the third-ranking Republican in the Senate, is asking Toomey to help soothe the anger.
Count me as one who didn't think they'd still be in a huff over that. Perhaps Bush's endorsement of Specter did more damage to his standing here than I'd previously thought...
Toomey is now the president of the Club for Growth, the ultra-fiscal conservative group which backed him in 2004. There's no hint of whether they will be throwing their weight behind Santorum; if I remember correctly, the CFG concentrates on GOP primaries.
Whether this split is healed in time for November 2006 remains to be seen. (Though Santorum has a primary challenger in John Featherman, he's not likely to lose his nomination). It should be made clear that these angry conservatives, metaphorically left at the altar, are not going to wed themselves to Bob Casey. That was never the goal of the Casey campaign, and we shouldn't expect it.
What should we expect then? A good many Republicans folks sitting on their hands and leaving boxes unchecked when they vote next year. This plays right into the Casey strategy: having already neutralized the abortion issue (the rebellion against Specter was about more than spending - anger at his pro-choice position also fueled it), we have a very real chance to face a demoralized GOP base in 2006.
We'll have a better understanding of this dynamic next May, when the GOP gubernatorial nominee is chosen and the Republican ticket is finalized. But I for one had no idea the PA GOP was so angry, and I'm happy to hear it.