I'm posting this is response to comments in the
NE-Sen: Nelson comfortably ahead main page thread.
Nebraska is a little bit goofy from an electoral standpoint, and as a die-hard liberal living in red state central, I want to post some stats and observations about Nebraska for folks from the coasts, and more importantly - dense population areas.
First, the disclaimer. I'm a graphic designer, not a social scientist - so I look at things from a target audience point of view. I'm used to seeing a large group of folks, and trying to find the best way to visually communicate with them. My conclusions are just my opinion, and are likely skewed because of my political and social leanings. That being said, I'm pretty damn good at empathizing with folks - or I'd be dead professionally. And, I have friends and family out-state in those rural areas. They aren't clueless, evil or stupid. They are just insulated from diverse opinions.
So, on to the Extended for some facts and observations.
Some Facts
(numbers have been rounded, just to make math easier - and are drawn from the nebraska.gov databook) - The numbers are also fixed, thanks to helpful proofreaders in the comments. Jeez, how embarrassing.
Population - about 1.7 million, according to the 2000 census.
Population of the Omaha and Lincoln Metro Areas - about 1.2 million, and these are approximate numbers. That's roughly 70% of the total population living in 3000 square miles (and that's a really generous number - including a lot of farmland).
Total land area of Nebraska - about 77,000 square miles
Total land area outside the Omaha - Lincoln metro area about 74,000 square miles
Total land area of New England - about 65,000 square miles
OK, that's 500,000 (29% of our state population) living in an area roughly 14% larger than NEW ENGLAND. That's a ton of folks that live in really low population density. How low?
Total people by county map- opens in new window
Persons per square mile county map- opens in new window
A massive chunk of the state has less than 8 people per square mile. Some entire counties have less than 1 person per square mile. BIG counties. Some people don't see people outside their household and mailman for weeks at a time.
Some Observations
Half a million people living in an area the size of New England aren't going to run into new people very often. They are going to see the same group of people every day, every week, and every month. The only time they are going to get a look at diversity - or have their world view challenged is when they drive to a metro center for shopping or vacation. Or when a rural kid goes off to college. Then, they suddenly get presented with new points of view. As adults, basically.
At that point, people are pretty indoctrinated into one belief system. They are a bit stubborn. They are damn opinionated. And getting those beliefs challenged can be damn shocking to their system. It's why midwesterners that visit, say NYC look a little shell shocked. It's the first time they've heard arabic outside of watching a terrorist video on Fox News or in a movie. It's totally alien to them.
However, living amongst the a small group of people does have it's advantages. If you are dishonest with folks, it gets around, and you're f*cked. The institutional memory of a small community goes on for generations. So people from rural areas value honesty, big time.
Nelson is going to do well in a red state, because he represents both Dems and Republican voters with his votes in the Senate. He told them he would, and he did, so he'll do well. He kept his word getting elected years ago, so he'll be fine. Let's just say, Tom Delay would not get reelected around here. He comes across as a dishonest prick, and Nebraska republicans wouldn't stand for that. Just ask Hal Daub.
But if Nebraskans put a high value on honesty - then why approve of Bush? Easy - the conservative media owns Nebraska. The major papers and the news outlets all have a major conservative bent. There is no Air America here, and Schultz doesn't get carried by NE stations. There is NOBODY to challenge their world view. No opportunities for critical political thinking outside the urban areas. Granted, there are Dems out there in rural Nebraska, but they are pretty scarce. They are hard-core, in my experience - but isolated.
Nebraskans aren't stupid or clueless
Nebraskans are actually very smart folks, for the most part. they are just way more insulated than folks in higher population density areas. They don't get challenged politically. They get highly biased news coverage, and no competing opinions.
Also, rural Nebraskans care about different issues than urban Nebraskans. There is a huge disconnect there, and it's not often addressed.
Now, I believe the Nebraska Democratic Party gets this, and is working on getting bodies on the ground to make some noise in rural areas. Let's face it, the Republicans screw farmers and rural folks DAILY. Democrats would look out for these folks - but the message never gets there. Well, at least it hasn't gotten there yet. That might change. The internet can get this going. Satellite Radio can get change started. We need the message, and we need it out there in the public, and rural eye.
Then again, I'm an optimist. And those are my observations. Pretty simple stuff (simplistic even), but population density goes a long way towards defining one's life experiences.
Why Ricketts is polling low
His dad Joe is the founder and chairman of Ameritrade. His family ranks as 93 among the Forbes 400 wealthiest Americans (yeah, the family is treated as one unit.) His success is due to riding dad's coattails, and not hard work. He makes no mention of dad in his spots or materials, and it's going to kill him. Joe is also on the Board of the American Enterprise Institute, so he brings some heavy hitting to the table. However, Nebraskans are going to see the McMansion and see Pete as elitist. Just watch.
He's not like Buffet (self made, and therefore worshipped). He's just along for dad's ride, and likely getting bored at work.
And, as ptmflbcs mentioned, he looks like a not-so cut Jeff Gannon.