I am writing this diary because I'm very concerned by some of the opinions I've recently seen posted here at Kos. Unless I'm mistaken, a growing number of Kossaks support an immediate withdrawal from Iraq. I am convinced that this would be a huge mistake.
I would like to begin by considering some things that I think the vast majority of us here at Daily Kos can agree on:
- Going into Iraq was a bad idea, and Bush probably lied to the country and the world to justify and enable his disastrous invasion.
- Bush and Co. has horribly mishandled post-invasion governance and reconstruction in Iraq. Indeed, virtually every challenge in Iraq has resulted in miserable failure. They have made a deliberate attempt to obscure the justification for the war and the facts on the ground. They have also repeatedly lied to the American public about both their intentions and progress (or lack thereof) in Iraq.
- I may lose some of the vast majority here... Even here at Kos, few could have guessed just how badly things would turn out. Of course, we knew that it couldn't really go well, and we knew that the Iraqi people wouldn't exactly be showering us with roses and thanks, but how could we have guessed that Bush would mess it up this badly?
How bad HAS it gotten? I
NEVER thought I'd see pictures of American soldiers torturing Iraqi's. I
NEVER thought I would read accounts of the US using chemical warfare against civilians. I
NEVER thought that "independent security forces" would be running around Iraq doing what they please with no accountability. I
NEVER thought that the entire Iraq reconstruction fund would be spoon fed to the grotesque giant that is Halliburton. And even though Bush started this war without the backing in the international community, I
NEVER imagined that we would so utterly and completely lose the support of the UN, NATO, and the world community.
Next I would like to consider a few things that we haven't really reached a consensus about:
- Why the hell Bush put us in Iraq to begin with? Was it the oil? His grudge against Saddam for trying to assassinate daddy? Did he somehow really believe that there were terrorists there? Maybe Rove just told him to? I'm leaning more and more towards the oil-opinion, but that isn't relevant to my point here.
- What are we supposed to do now? Things clearly aren't getting better in Iraq, and American soldiers and Iraqi civilians continue to be killed and seriously injured.
So, let me take a moment to get back to my original point. I've wanted the troops to come home since the start of this misadventure. I know a couple guys who have served in Iraq, and I feel very strongly that the vast, vast majority of our troops are good people trying to do their jobs. It's terrible that they have to be away from their homes and families (especially during the holidays) and it's really terrible that so many are dying and being injured in Iraq. Like most people here, I have been repeatedly disgusted by Congresses complete failure to do it's job with regard to Iraq. Most of all, I have been disgusted by the complete lack of Democratic dissent along every step of the way. So when I saw Murtha on TV, I was relieved, happy, and proud. HERE was what we should have had with Kerry; a decorated war Vet, taking a FIRM stand against Bush and his terrible policies, demanding that we see this quagmire for what it is and bring our troops home as soon as practical. I was really proud (for once) to be a Democrat. Since then, many seem to have taken it to the next level, and are promoting the immediate withdrawal of our troops.
So, for the first time the return of our troops seems like a real possibility. Despite the best efforts of the morally bankrupt Republican Congress, as a nation we seem to be having some discussion about this, finally. And for the first time, I began to think about what it would really mean to withdraw immediately.
As far as I can tell, Iraq has no national military capable of defending their country, or of maintaining order within the country. What Iraq DOES have is a host of other players with their OWN military capacities; the Kurds in the north, independent militias, various domestic and perhaps foreign insurgent groups... Nobody will question that the US military is the one and only thing holding up the current Iraqi government. If the US were to withdraw it's troops, it seems clear that the current government would fall. Without US military might, it has no real power. Take away that might, and what you have left is a power vacuum, and I honestly can't imagine a situation where that vacuum would be filled peacefully.
So, we have a situation where the country would clearly be entering civil conflict; "Civil War" seems like a fair descriptor here. However, this is not all there is to the story. Giant walls are not going to magically appear along the border of Iraq when we withdraw. The country is not going to be surrounded by some mysterious force field, that will only be lowered "once they sort out their own business" (a process which seems likely to result in a huge number of civilian deaths).
This is obvious because virtually every nation and group in the region has a clear interest and stake in what happens in Iraq. The past actions of Turkey and Iran make it clear that they will not tolerate a Kurdish state on their borders. The relatively weak states in the region such as Saudi Arabia and perhaps Jordan would be greatly threatened by a general anarchy in Iraq, and would surely take steps to prevent such a situation from occurring. Iran can hardly be expected to sit by and watch while the Shi'a and Sunni fight to the death in Iraq. Do we honestly think that Israel will sit and watch as a potentially radical and extreme new Muslim state emerges as a threat?
I would also suggest that it is foolish to thing that the major powers of the world will not become involved. These powers are greatly dependent on oil from the Middle East, and cannot afford the risk of revolution in Saudi Arabia or continued destruction of other oil infrastructure in the region. Nor will the powers allow one country or group, be it Iran, the Kurds, or the Saudi's to gain control and influence of the entire area. Clearly, the powers of the world would have a great necessity to become more involved.
I believe that I have shown that an immediate withdrawal would without question lead to Civil Conflict, would likely lead to regional conflict, and could perhaps cause greater involvement of various world powers, the results of which are impossible to predict. I do not thing that any of these scenarios are in the interest of the US. Nor do I think that we must occupy Iraq indefinitely, and I will suggest an alternative course of action in my next (hopefully shorter) diary.