Reading the latest
Knight Ridder piece on the rising Iranian influence in Iraq, we may be witnessing a new shift in focus. This
diary already outlines the rise of the Iranian backed militias and Iran's infiltration of Iraq's government, but I would like too speculate on what this means for the future.
There is little doubt that the Iranian backed death squads and torture centers are heightening fears among Iraq's Sunni population. Coupled with overt Iranian influence with regards to the coming elections and you have a sizeable minority that will be marginalized. As this information regarding Iran becomes rooted, it is reasonable to assume that the insurgency and its sympathizers may well rethink their current approach. I would suggest the unthinkable is possible when we see how the current enemy views their predicament.
I have always held the belief that this administration will never allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons. Whether it be a strike in concert with Israel, or a lone American military exercise, Iran will be dealt with. The latest anti-semitism heard from the Iranian government only solidifies any future justification. In the coming months, if the diplomatic overtures fail, we can expect to see the rhetoric heat up from both sides.
The rising threat of Iran in Iraq and its nuclear program may force the administration to rethink its Iraq strategy. This new reality may allow for the emergence of a common goal between the present enemies. The marginalized Sunni, under the threat of a national army with sectarian motivations, may well find a partner with the current occupiers. Today, this idea sounds absurd, but underneath this emerging reality there seems some rationale.
Iranian backed militias are seen as a threat to the future stability of Iraq. I would expect to see a rising tension between these well armed forces and the American military. If we do see some military action against Iran's nuclear program, then these militias may be the vehicle Iran uses to enact revenge. In a sense we will be at war with Iran, with Iran essentially inside the government of Iraq, which we apparently support. The Sunni insurgents, and Sunni population in general, may see leverage with the Iran and American tensions and use this as way to attain greater power within Iraq.
What may develop, and this doesn't seem far fetched, is an alliance between American and Sunni elements to stop Iran. I can't see this administration allowing Iraq to become a satellite of Iran, for a myriad of reasons. Coupled with overt hostilities over nuclear weapons and you have events that threaten to destabilize the entire region. The Saudis may well back the Iraq Sunni to blunt Iran and herein the alliances are formed.
It isn't even really a reach for this administration to expect a broad level of support for any operation against Iran. Iraq as an enemy has always been a hard sell, but Iran is a natural because of history and the Israeli component. I see a recipe for protracted fighting in Iraq, but maybe not against the current foes, but a new foe where the intelligence is neat and tidy. Does anyone honestly see America allowing Iranian control of Iraq's oil fields? Are the Sunni prepared to accept a minority position which gives them no control, at the mercy of clear enemy? The situation in Iraq is so fluid and complicated that mutual interests are changable and this could make for strange bedfellows. Civil war is a real possibility, but given the circumstances I doubt America would be a neutral party.
