While Snoopgate and a potential second Fitzmas have us rubbing our hands in glee here in the US, Chileans continue to prepare for the second round of their presidential elections on January 15. Last week, centrist Socialist Michelle Bachelet won the first round with a little over 45% of the vote, vs. a combined vote of about 49% for the two right-wing candidates (both of whom had held government positions during the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet).
According to a poll (Spanish language site) conducted this week by the conservative Santiago daily El Mercurio (Spanish language site), Bachelet leads her challenger by 5.3 percentage points, 42.8% to 37.5% with 19.7% undecided.
Translated interview on the flip
Meanwhile, the Brazilian on-line news agency ADITAL is reporting that Bachelet is the favorite over rightist Sebastián Piñera in the January elections. What follows is their
interview with Chilean electoral analyst Pepe Auth:
"In a purely political election, Piñera loses"
Q. Is there any relationship between this election and the past presidential election in 1999?
Pepe Auth - In 1999 95% of the voters had already chosen either [Socialist Ricardo] Lagos or [rightist Joaquín] Lavín in the first round, and in practice the second round involved fighting over the 4.5% of voters who had voted for one of the several other losing candidates... Now, the voting segment in play is much greater, and in fact makes up about a third of the electorate. There was a huge difference between Bachelet and Piñera [in the first round], about 20%, and this indicates a much closer, but also more uncertain, election, given that there are 2.2 million voters in play, instead of the 500,000 in play in 99, and this opens up a much greater degree of uncertainty.
Q. Will the internal power conflict in the centrist Christian Democratic Party be decisive in these elections?
Pepe - CD will not be a decisive electoral group, given that 80% of them already voted for Bachelet in the first round. Piñera could have campaigned for this electorate if he had not been pressured by the far-right. Today, however, he clearly has less freedom and his domination by the Lavín sector of the right makes him a less attractive figure for the center. It was easier to vote for Piñera in the first round than it will be now for the CD to do it in the second with a Piñera that says he is different from the [far-right] UDI but nevertheless is forced to mimic their policies.
Q. Then, what is the grand prize at play?
Pepe - Without a doubt it is those 1.6 million that voted for Lavín, and in particular the poor and especially the poor women who voted for him. And among this group Bachelet has more possibilities than Piñera for two reasons: Piñera did horribly among women voters, because he was seen as a sexist, arrogant, know-it-all candidate who relied on rationalism more than leadership... The other point is that to win this electorate you have to press the flesh, and Piñera simply lacks the ground troops and leadership networks to get into the neighborhoods and convince these voters he is an alternative, indeed the best option.
Q. Will the UDI go all out for Piñera?
Pepe - I'm certain they will do everything they must do to support him, because they clearly do not want to look like some kind of traitors to him, but they don't have any interest whatsoever in giving their principal adversary total control over the right-wing movement in Chile. [Piñera, after all] has explicitly declared his objective is to seize leadership in the right from the UDI. They'll show up, but without putting in a lot of energy, love, or money. Having a team does not at all imply a level of political commitment. [UDI leader Pablo] Longueira has made it clear in his public statements: I'm in this not because I like it or because I want to be, but because I must due to our prior commitment.
Q. What is the most important frame in the second round?
Pepe - Bachelet has to stress this is a struggle between two electoral alliances, the center-left Concertación and the right-wing Alliance for Chile. If she makes that the issue, I think she already won the election by thirteen points on December 11. Piñera on the other hand has to make it an election between two individuals, with distinct leadership capabilities, and in which Chileans should vote for the most qualified one. Piñera has to move this out of politics, and Bachelet has to make it political. If the election is political, the Alliance will lose. Longueira's aggressive attitude actually helps the Concertación.
