I will do my end-of-the-year analysis of the 2006 House races after the FEC report comes out on December 31. That will show comprehensive analysis of the races that are competitive. But right now, I thought it might be helpful to run down the open seats.
Arizona 08 - Jim Kolbe (R) retiring after 11 terms
STATUS: Competitive; Bush got 49% in 2000 and 53% in 2004
GEOGRAPHY: Eastern Tucson area and small desert towns
In a less GOP-friendly year than 2004 this could be a very competitive race. The leading Democrat is State Sen. Gabrielle Giffords, while the only Republican so far is far-right State Rep. Randy Graf. We'll see how the fundraising is going after the 31st, but for now this seems like a tight one. A real pickup opportunity for the Dems.
Colorado 07 - Bob Beauprez (R) running for Governor
STATUS: Very Competitive; Gore and Kerry both won with 50%
GEOGRAPHY: Denver suburbs
Beauprez would have won a third term, but decided to run for governor, creating an open seat that could just be the most competitive House race in America. Al Gore and John Kerry both won this district (albeit narrowly), and trends in Colorado clearly favor the Dems. On the Dem side, the frontrunners are former state legislators Ed Perlmutter and Peggy Lamm; for the GOP the choice is between Education Commissioner Rick O'Donnell and Jefferson County Treasurer Mark Paschall. VERY TIGHT.
Florida 09 - Michael Bilirakis (R) retiring after 12 terms
STATUS: Strong for the GOP; Bush got 53% in 2000 and more in 2004
GEOGRAPHY: Gulf Coast suburbs
The most interesting news will be the results of the GOP primary, which includes Bilirakis' son, Gus, a state legislator.
Florida 11 - Jim Davis (D) running for Governor
STATUS: Strong for the Dems; Gore got 59%
GEOGRAPHY: Urban Tampa Bay
This seat should stay in Democratic hands easily. In fact, no Republican is even running yet.
Florida 13 - Katherine Harris (R) running for Senate
STATUS: Strong for the GOP; Bush got 53% in 2000 and more in 2004
GEOGRAPHY: Gulf Coast suburbs, including Sarasota area
Harris is probably the weakest Republican in this region. While she only won a 55-45 reelection in 2004, "Republican X" could probably get closer to 60%.
Idaho 01 - Butch Otter (R) running for Governor
STATUS: Totally solid for the GOP; Bush got nearly 70% both times
GEOGRAPHY: Western Idaho
This is a total snooze-fest outside of the Republican primary.
Illinois 06 - Henry Hyde (R) retiring after 16 terms
STATUS: Competitive; Bush got 53% in 2000
GEOGRAPHY: Chicago's western suburbs; GOP-leaning but Dem-trending
Hyde's 56-44 reelection in 2004, the weakest of his career, shows that DuPage County suburbs are trending Democratic, but they are still in the GOP column by a bit. The GOP heir is State Sen. Peter Roskam, while Democrats are duking it out in a three-way primary between 2004 nominee Christine Cegelis, Washington favorite Tammy Duckworth (an Iraq vet), and Wheaton College professor Lindy Scott. Duckworth is the strongest candidate, most believe; but we won't know who is the nominee until March 21. This could be tight.
Iowa 01 - Jim Nussle (R) running for Governor
STATUS: Very Competitive; Gore got 52% and Kerry got 53%
GEOGRAPHY: Northeast Iowa
This and Colorado 07 mark the closest open seats in the country. Both lean Democratic in a neutral year. If this one is not close, it will be a very Republican year. The leading Dem is attorney Bruce Braley; the leading Repub is State Rep. Bill Dix. TIGHT, TIGHT, TIGHT.
Maryland 03 - Ben Cardin (D) running for Senate
STATUS: Strong for the Dems; Gore and Kerry both won fairly easily
GEOGRAPHY: Annapolis and Baltimore suburbs
No Republican is running, and while this isn't totally safe, it tilts Democratic. The Democratic primary is migraine-inducing, but whoever wins that will win in November without too much sweat.
Minnesota 06 - Mark Kennedy (R) running for Senate
STATUS: Lean to the GOP; Bush got 56% (I think)
GEOGRAPHY: Suburbs and exurbs
Large Republican field. The only possibly strong Democrat is Elwyn Tinklenberg, the likely primary victor. Tinklenberg can put in a good fight, but barring a 1994-style tsunami the GOP holds this one.
Nebraska 03 - Tom Osborne (R) running for Governor
STATUS: Totally solid for the GOP; Bush got well over 70%
GEOGRAPHY: Rural Nebraska
Big yawn. Even bigger than in Idaho 01.
Nevada 02 - Jim Gibbons (R) running for Governor
STATUS: Strong for the GOP; Bush got around 57%
GEOGRAPHY: Rural Nevada
While Democrats have a decent candidate in Jill Derby, this should stay with the Republicans - either Gibbons' wife Dawn, Secretary of State Dean Heller, or that woman whose name I keep forgetting.
New York 11 - Major Owens (D) retiring after 12 terms
STATUS: Totally solid for the Dems; Gore got nearly 90%
GEOGRAPHY: Brooklyn; majority-black district
This is one of the most Democratic seats in the entire country. Notably, only one of the candidates is white.
Ohio 04 - Michael Oxley (R) retiring after 12 full terms
STATUS: Pretty solid for the GOP; Bush got around 65%
GEOGRAPHY: Small-town Western Ohio
Yawn. For the record, my bet is on State Sen. Jim Jordan to win the GOP primary and, subsequently, the election.
Ohio 06 - Ted Strickland (D) running for Governor
STATUS: Very Competitive; Nearly tied in both 2000 and 2004
GEOGRAPHY: Eastern Ohio, along the hilly state borders
This is the only endangered open Dem seat, really. Dems have a great candidate in State Sen. Charlie Wilson, while the GOP frontrunner is State House Speaker Pro Tem Chuck Blasdel. It should be a photo-finish between the two. One to watch closely, and one that Dems MUST hold if we are to take the House. TIGHT, TIGHT, TIGHT!
Ohio 13 - Sherrod Brown (D) running for Senate
STATUS: Strong for the Dems; Gore and Kerry got around 56%
GEOGRAPHY: Lorain/Akron area
This should be interesting, but only in the Dem primary, which features a couple former legislators, a badly-losing but very wealthy 2004 candidate in OH-14, and a former Congressman from what is now OH-17. My guess (and my hope) would be for that former Congressman, Tom Sawyer.
Oklahoma 05 - Ernest Istook (R) running for Governor
STATUS: Fairly solid for the GOP; Bush got well over 60%
GEOGRAPHY: Oklahoma City area
Solid for the Repubs. My bet is on Lt. Gov. Mary Fallin.
Tennessee 09 - Harold Ford Jr. (D) running for Senate
STATUS: Totally solid for the Dems; over 70% Dem
GEOGRAPHY: Memphis; majority-black district
A black Democrat will win this. Who that is, your guess is as good as mine.
Vermont At Large - Bernie Sanders (I) running for Senate
STATUS: Tilts to the Dems; state is solidly blue
GEOGRAPHY: Whole state of Vermont
State Senate President Peter Welch is the frontrunner Democrat. This might be competitive, but no steam yet.
Wisconsin 08 - Mark Green (R) running for Governor
STATUS: Tilts to the GOP; Bush got around 55% both times
GEOGRAPHY: Northeast Wisconsin, including Green Bay area
My bet is on State Assembly Speaker John Gard, a Republican, to carry the day, but Brown County Executive Nancy Nusbaum or businessman Jamie Wall could be competitive Democrats.