Well, given the horrendous, soul-wrenching season of darkness that is the 1st year of Law School, it's been a few months since I put in an installment of TNPT - the absence of which has been sorely missed by the 3 people who read it.
But, unafraid and determined, motivated by my fascination with politics and an unhealthy love for the melodious sound of my own voice...Here it is, the first TNPT look at the 2008 Presidential Race.
This week: The Republicans!
This will be, by no means, a comprehensive list of possible '08 contenders. It will, in true TNPT fashion, skip many of the more boring ones, and give embarassingly cursory coverage of others.
Here goes...
Christine Todd Whitman - With a new book out and the obligatory speaking tour keeping her in the public eye (or at least on C-SPAN), the moderate ex-Garden State gov and EPA chief is looking disturbingly like a candidate. She is already giving the standard, "I swear I'm not running for anything" denials and I think the lady doth protest too much. While it's possible she might just want to go the Senate, Whitman seems to be taking genuine pleasure in pissing off the religious right. This alone might kill her chances, but it could be fun to watch. Whitman is smart and articulate. On the other hand, I've been to Jersey...
Jeb Bush - Ok, everyone's talking about it anyway, so we'll get this one out of the way. He's smarter than his brother, and I imagine he always thought he would be the one to get to go to D.C. The operatives that influence such decisions may want to avoid making the Bush family look too dynastic. And depending on the state of the country in a few years, it might not be that popular a last name.
Bill Frist - Bill Frist reminds me of the old adage about bad sex. Even when he's good, he's still pretty bad. The Family Values crowd likes him, but he'll be the Orrin Hatch of '08.
Mitt Romney - The Stormin' Mormon from the Bay State has been trying to brush up his conservative resume for a few years now. The guys with the money might like him, but his sort of pro-choice stand makes him an unpopular figure for many of the grassroots conservatives. Despite his move against stem-cell research, it might not be enough. I think the underlying prejudice that many Evangelicals and conservative Catholics have towards the Mormon Church might hurt him as well.
Bill Owens - the right used to love the guy, and his constant blasting of Ward Churchill (an ant-Semitic idiot whose right to free speech I will not cease to defend - even as I gag) has got his face on Fox News alot. Still, his family life is, shall we say, fractious.
Rudy Giuliani - the love and adulation showered on Hizzoner by the GOP will evaporate in a second the minute he declares. Family life? Fractious doesn't begin to describe it. Pro-choice, pro-gay rights and anti-gun. This one is dead on arrival. However, if he goes independent, which is unlikely, he could win.
Condoleeza Rice - the darling of the Bush crowd. Many of them want her to head back to California to challenge Feinstein, but I think that she knows that might be too hard a row to hoe (Feinstein is even more popular than Boxer). A female, minority conservative has Rove salivating. With no VP to be the anointed one, the Bush machine might look to Condi.
Newt Gingrich - unthinkable a few years ago, with a book out and basically a third seat at the table on the Hannity and Colmes show, Gingrich has almost completed his rehabilitation...at least in his own mind. His own marital infidelities will be brought back into the limelight by opponents only too happy to ignore them when he was the speaker. Still, I refuse to count him out. Newt is a master politician, and perfect at giving voice to the talk-radio crowd. I don't think he'll win, but he may be in it to the end.
George Pataki - moderate, funny name. Nope.
Bob Ehrlich - a mediocre governor of Maryland who got the job after beating the incredibly mediocre Kennedy-Townsend, Ehrlich has great politician hair, and thinks he knows how to use it. I'm betting Balmo mayor Martin O'Malley beats the snot out of him in '06 - hair or no hair.
George Allen - the Virginia Senator also has the good pol hair and the smarmy attitude to go with it. I think that he thinks he's more popular than he actually is, but since it looks like Mark Warner won't be running against him (though who knows), he might have time to fix that. He's not on my top list of "ones to worry about"...yet.
Rick Santorum - I'm not at all convinced he's as vulnerable in '06 as some people think he is. He's also got a good following who think that he might just be the Messiah. He won't win, but he'll be that pain in the ass candidate with 4 delegates who stays in hoping to get picked as VP. Who knows? It worked for the last guy who tried it.
Well, that's it for now. We skipped a few of the boring ones, and made some of 'em sound more interesting than they actually are, but that's showbiz, and that's what politics is.
Just remember, it can always get worse.
Mahalo.