Many seem confident that the administration's Social Security plan will fail. While I certainly hope it does, I'm not so sure that is how it will play out. As Democrats we really need to be united on this and not let our guard down. Here's what I am afraid could still happen, and unfortunately it's a losing proposition for the Democrats.
- Bush uses his "political capital" to bring up Social Security reform in his State of the Union address. He talks in general terms and actually outlines no specific plan.
- Democrats respond, opposing Social Security reform. They talk about about how there will be cuts in benefits, how it is gambling with the future, and they question the President's numbers. Some Republicans start to seem a little wishy-washy, and they start to hedge thier rhetoric . The President's plan for Social Security reform appears doomed to failure.
So far so good, right? Well let's not start patting ourselves on the back just yet. Now comes the bad part.
(more below the fold)
- Republican lawmakers and pundits go on TV, talk in general terms about the "crisis", and hold up blank pieces of paper shouting "the Democrats have no plan". (even though they haven't actually released any "real" plan of thier own yet).
- The Democrats panic, under pressure from the media and Republicans, they propose thier own Social Security reform plan.
- The Republicans point and say "see, even the Democrats say we need to do something"
- The Democrats and Republicans in congress begin to haggle over the details of Social Security reform. The American public begins to lose interest.
- Eventually, compromises are reached, and a Social Security reform plan is passed, even though it more closely resembles the Democrat's plan and looks nothing like what the Republican's first proposed.
- Democrats proclaim how "in the spirit of bi-partisanship" they were able to do something good for America.
- Bush, the Republicans, and the media tout how the administration was successful in using its "political capital" to reform Social Security. This is what the American public hears.
- In 2006 and 2008, the Republicans use this issue against the Democrats saying something like "Even over strong Democratic opposition, the Republicans were able to pass a Social Security reform plan that will protect the financial security of our nation's elderly forever". Democrats run around saying, "well, I was against it at first, but then I was for it".
Maybe I'm being a pessimist here, but I think this is an important concern. Social Security is one of the few issues where the Democrats can absolutely depend on broad public support. And as the minority, it may be one of our only chances to declare a Democratic win. We can't let the Republicans snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
So how do I propose we stop this from happening?
We STAND FIRM on our postion that there is no crisis. We point out that in 1978 Bush said the Social Security system would be bankrupt by 1988 if it wasn't privatized[Source: USA Today, 7/28/2000]. We talk about how the administration has fooled us before with false "impending doom" scare tactics. We use his own words against him "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me". (Except we actually know the saying)
We STAND FIRM on our position that this is just another attempt by the Republicans to gut Social Security, something they have been trying to do for decades.
We STAND FIRM on our position that the Bush administration's raids on the Social Security trust fund money must be stopped.
We STAND FIRM on our position that predictions 40 years into the future are just crystal ball gazing. If and when any issues were to arise, we could easily tweak the system to solve them, just as we have for the past 60 years.
We STAND FIRM on our position that, as a nation, we have a responsibility to our elderly. And we cannot shirk that responsibility by placing it into the hands of potentially corrupt CEOs, stockbrokers, or corporations. Think about what Enron did to hurt the retirement security of thier employees and stockholders.
Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi must crack the whip on any Democratic congressman that starts to stray on this issue.
If we stick to our guns on this, we can defeat the Republicans on this issue. As the minority in congress, we may not get many more chances like this. It is one of the few opportunities that we have to declare a WIN for the Democrats, let's not blow it.
Wouldn't it be nice if in the 2006 and 2008 elections we could say;
"The Republicans tried to gut one of our great American programs. A program which insures that people who work hard thier whole lives and contribute to the great American economy are not left poor and destitute in thier old age. We saw the Republican's attempt to take money out of the pockets of your grandmothers and grandfathers, and to use that money to line the pockets of thier fat-cat CEO friends in big business. But we Democrats said NO, dammit, not on our watch. And we stopped them dead in thier tracks."
If we want to do something about Social Security, lets wait and do it when WE are in charge. That way we can declare the victory for ourselves.