When the administration released its latest projections on the health of America's major entitlement programs, two independent trustees of the Social Security Administration were brave enough to point out that Medicare is in much worse shape than Social Security.
Moreover, Richard Foster, the chief actuary for Medicare (who was famously threatened with the loss of his job if he told Congress the truth about the cost of the prescription drug benefit), has warned of multiple years of double-digit percent increases in Medicare premiums starting immediately.
None of this is news to Kossacks. But it is underreported by the mainstream media, which obligingly focuses on Bush's Social Security bamboozlepalooza. Medicare's problems are real and will become obvious to most everyone very soon, no matter how hard the administration tries to sweep them under the rug.
So my question is: Can't Dems use Bush's negligence to their vast political gain?
If the Democrats start beating the drum about Medicare's problems now, as hard as Bush is beating the drum on Social Security, it seems to me they are set up to claim a lot of victories:
- Democrats are consistently accused of having no new ideas. Since the GOP is ignoring Medicare, the Democrats can look like they discovered this problem.
- It won't be long before Medicare's problems are obvious to everyone; probably 12-18 months at the outside. If Democrats can get out in front of the issue (and if Republicans stupidly continue to ignore it), they can look like geniuses for taking the initiative on fixing a very big problem.
- The longer Democrats beat the drum on Medicare, and begin to persuade people that it is indeed a much bigger, immediate, and drastic problem than Social Security, the more Bush looks like an idiot chastizing Democrats for refusing to "sit at the table" and work out a compromise privatization plan.
- If Republicans are dumb enough to ignore Medicare for the next 12 months or so, I believe it's an issue that (together with the ethics lapses by House Republicans) can easily secure a comfortable Dem. margin in 2006 congressional elections.
- Finally, when Medicare does blow up, people will understand that it's the result of Republican inaction. If it blows up when Republicans still control everything, fine. But if it blows up after Dems have retaken a house of Congress or the White House, Dems will have more credibility in blaming the Republicans, because they warned everyone way back when.
Anyway, I think it's a great issue Dems should be drilling, and it concerns me that none of them are. Is there something I'm missing?
Oh yeah, I forgot. If Dems gain politically by emphasizing Medicare, they may in fact gain sufficient political currency to actually do something about the problem. I doubt that anything can be done to 'fix' Medicare, but at least something can be done to lessen the blow. That's called win-win, or, we do well by doing good.