I am tremendously excited by the new Harris poll number that puts the president's disapproval rating at its highest level. Why? Because it broke through a 45% positive, 55% negative support. If Bush's approval were a stock, it's time to sell.
You'll want to read this in the context of this fascinating chart from Pollkatz.
Here's the details on the poll, in case you missed the earlier
diary by jj32.
"President's Job Ratings Fall to Lowest Point of His Presidency":
Harris Interactive [emphasis mine].
The last month has not been a good one for President Bush and the Republicans. Most people have opposed the President's proposals for reforming Social Security and most were unhappy with the positions taken by Republicans in the Terri Schiavo case. The result is that the president's job ratings have fallen to 44 percent positive, 56 percent negative, the worst numbers of his presidency, and a drop from 48 percent positive, 51 percent negative in February (and 50% positive, 49% negative last November).
This is one of the results of a new Harris Poll of 1,010 U.S. adults surveyed by telephone by Harris Interactive® between April 5 and 10, 2005.
[...]
Vice President Dick Cheney's ratings are currently 37 percent positive, 60 percent negative, down sharply from 45 percent positive, 52 percent negative in February.
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's ratings are 42 percent positive, 56 percent negative, identical to his February ratings.
This means that brand new people are coming to the conclusion that Bush and Cheney are bad for America. More people are starting to look at the emperor president and say, "wait a moment... I think he's naked!" The "mandate" is dead. Dead dead dead dead dead.
Why is it dead? Look at the Pollkatz chart showing what happens when you subtract the president's disapproval numbers from his approval numbers. His support shot up for 9/11, start of the Gulf War, the capture of Saddam Hussein. The incredible onslaught of publicity for the election only bumped him 8 points. But here's the stunner: Bush's natural tendency is to lose 20 points every six months. And, to use a stock market term, we just broke through the support.
Admittedly, the 20 points/6 months rate is based on coming down from spikes - but, for those stats geeks among us, the linearity of these descents prior to the 2004 election season is stunning.
Update [2005-4-18 18:50:22 by HeyThereItsEric]: I attempt to explain the enigmatic "linearity" comment here, and theran comments on it as well.
I could (and someday intend to) write an essay entirely on how the feedback loops that the right-wing noise machine set up to reinforce its message have eradicated the dampeners that it so desperately needs right now. The noise machine has no brakes. No matter how utterly, stunningly obvious the need for moderation is, they've gone and left a brick on the extremism pedal.