Every day, Bush is looking more and more like a lame duck. You have to give the Bushies their due - they have been extraordinarily successful in keeping Bush popular despite achieving poor results and ramming through an unpopular agenda. However, their methods are running into trouble and I think it is only going to get worse for them. Below I discuss why I think the Bushies have been so successful, the four problems they have encountered in 2005 and how the Bolton nomination fits in.
I attribute the Bushies' success to their ability to do six things:
Totally dominating the media
Whether it is tax cuts, invading Iraq or Social Security reform, whatever Bush wants to talk about is THE topic and is given wall-to-wall coverage throughout the media, with most pundits agreeing with Bush's position.
Keeping Bush's statements vague and misleading
The epitome to me is when Bush was asked during a prime time press conference what was the potential cost of invading Iraq in terms of American lives and the economy and Bush replied that it is less than another 9/11. Bush's answer is so vague that he can never be accused of lying or understating the cost. It also implies that invading Iraq is a part of the war on terrorism and will help prevent another 9/11, even though Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11 or terrorism. Because the Bushies dominate the media, Bush doesn't get hammered for his vagueness.
Portraying Bush as a "tough guy" who takes "bold" actions that are true to his values
I think huge part of Bush's appeal to the conservative white male vote is his perceived toughness. Bush describes the world as a scary place with lots of people who hate us, but that he is tough and strong enough to take them on. It's a black-and-white world, with Bush wearing the white hat and a pair of Colt 45's. Bush's constant political victories just feed into that tough guy image. Bush's initiatives are almost always described as "bold", again adding to the image of the tough guy willing to take on the world.
Holding Republicans together with an agenda of tax cuts and corporate welfare
I think most Republican politicians are extremists but I recognize that they aren't extreme on all the same issues. A big key to the Bushies' ability to enact their unpopular agenda has been that they have kept the Republicans together around the ideas of tax cuts, corporate welfare for their supporters and the promise that everyone will eventually get their win.
Shutting down scandals
I think that the Bush administration in the most corrupt and unethical administration in the last 75 years. However, the Bushies for the most part have been able to keep their corruption and unethical acts out of the media. A big key is the Republican Congressional leadership's refusal to oversee the Executive branch. Whenever a scandal has come up, the Bushies say vague, good sounding things and without someone with subpena power to force out new revelations, the scandal dies from a lack of oxygen.
Keeping social conservatives happy while not scaring off the general public
The classic is Bush talking about the "culture of life", which social conservatives take as meaning Bush supports their agenda. To the general public, it sounds uplifting and noble. The general public has no idea that it means to social conservatives the end of abortion, birth control and the right of families to pull the plug on life support of obviously brain dead loved ones.
At first, it looked like 2005 would just be the "same old, same old" for the Bushies. The top of their agenda was Social Security reform and the media became all Social Security, all the time. Once again, Bush left the social conservatives at the altar after his election, abandoning the "Defense of Marriage Amendment" which he talked about so much before the election. Bush claimed credit for every positive Democratic development throughout the world and the MSM gave it to him even though he had little to do with any of them. With the Republican gains in the Senate, the Democrats and moderate Republicans could no longer stop Bush's agenda.
However, there are four problems that have thrown a wrench into the Bushies' methods. The first is that during the election, Bush made a specific promise - to cut the deficit in half by 2009. Bush can no longer cut taxes and increase spending without breaking his promise or cutting some program. Bush's 2006 budget included billions in cuts in government payments to farmers in order to try to meet his promise. Farmers screamed and Bushies eventually caved. The House wants to eliminate the Inheritance Tax, but there is no way that that can happen and Bush can keep his promise. It appears that the Bushies can no longer use tax cuts and corporate welfare to keep Republican congress members happy.
The second is that Social Security reform had proved far less popular than the Bushies planned. The Bushies' plan was to build popular support for Bush's vague "vision" through their usual domination of the media, then ram through Congress an awful bill without a full airing of the details. However, the Bamboozlepalooza Tour has been a flop. Support for even the vague outlines of Bush's Social Security reform has eroded. Social Security reform is still dominating the intellectual discussions of government, but the Bamboozlepalooza Tour has not captured the MSM's attention as the Bushies planned.
The third is that the spurned social conservatives are being courted by two major Republican leaders who are willing to publicly support their extremist agenda. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist and House Majority Leader Tom DeLay both need the support of social conservatives - Frist for his Presidential aspirations and DeLay to shore up his support that has been eroded by ethics violations. Frist and DeLay have nowhere close to the sensibilities of the Bushies about what can be done for the social conservatives that won't scare the general public. So, we had Frist and DeLay fully supporting the social conservatives on the Terri Schiavo fiasco. Now, First and DeLay have joined social conservatives in their war on the independent judiciary. Frist and DeLay's embrace of the social conservatives has alienated the general public and caused the popularity of Bush and Congress to plummet.
The fourth is that when "nice guy" Tom Daschle lost his Senate seat, the leadership of the Democratic opposition fell to "tough and really smart guy" Harry Reid. Suddenly, the Democrats in the Senate were acting with far more backbone. Nancy Pelosi IMHO has a lot of backbone, but not the smarts of Reid. However, Reid's leadership has IMHO made Pelosi more effective. The Democrats with smaller numbers are putting up much more of a fight then they did during Bush's first term.
Social Security reform is now a lose/lose proposition for the Bushies. Social Security reform is too unpopular for Republicans to enact unilaterally - they have to have the bipartisan cover. Bush has disavowed having any plan and has been try to lure the Democrats into negotiating a compromise plan that will give Bush everything he wants while sharing the blame. The Democrats are refusing to go for it. So after the Bamboozlepalooza is over, does Bush introduce his plan to Congress? He won't be able to ram it through without a full hearing and a full hearing will sink the bill and Bush's approval ratings. Does he submit nothing and blame the Democrats for not willing to negotiate? Doing so will hurt Bush's "tough guy - bold actions" reputation and will make people less likely to sign up for the next agenda item. Let the House Republicans come up with a plan and try to triangulate? No one is going to believe that Bush had a better plan that whatever the House comes up with and again Bush looks like a whiney loser.
So that brings me to John Bolton's nomination as UN ambassador. Bolton is incompetent and ill-suited to the position, but he is just the next in a series of incompetents (Rice, Gonzales) rewarded with promotions. Some liberals (Kevin Drum and Ed Kilgore, for example) think the nomination should be opposed on policy grounds. However, policy grounds will never work because all a nominee has to say is "I will do what the President tells me to do" and the policy issue goes away. Working to legalize torture by the US government won't disqualify you from being Attonery General, but paying a nanny under the table will. Casual observers won't understand why Bolton's talking to intelligence analysts was bad, but they can understand that we shouldn't put abusive bosses into positions of authority.
Bolton is a gift from Bush to the Democrats. To me, the Democrats need to use Bolton's nomination four ways: (1) to do a backdoor investigation of the Bush Administration's intimidation of intelligence analysts, (2) to hurt Bush's popularity by portraying him as someone who condones nasty, abusive behavior, (3) to force Republican Senators to take an unpopular position to be used against them later and (4) to encourage Republican Senators to oppose the Bushies' plans. Bolton is just a small opportunity because confirmation of the UN ambassador isn't that big of a story. It is only an opportunity at all because the Republican noise machine is focused on a topic (Social Security reform) that the MSM has lost interest in. If Bush drops Bolton, then the opportunity goes away. However, it appears that the Bushies are digging in their heels, which means political theatre, which in turns means a lot more MSM political coverage.
The big goal for the Democrats should be the slowing of the Bush juggernaut. A lot of the Bushies' dominance of the media is based upon their ability to control the nation's political agenda. That control requires constant forward movement on the Bush agenda. With Bush's current agenda item (Social Security reform) proving unpopular, the media is now looking around for other stories to report on. All the other big stories right now - DeLay's ethic problems, the Republican embrace of social conservative's extreme agenda, the weak job market, the sputtering economy, the federal deficit, etc. - are bad news for the Republicans. With some smart moves and some luck, the Democrats can turn the latest downturn in Bush's popularity into a death spiral.
