Recently PLS posted a
diary in which he suggests that the peak oil topic's leaking to the mainstream in itself could hasten the crisis. He says, correctly imo, that "the only way to avert a hard landing is to start doing something now, which would take tremendous public pressure." This theme is elaborated in an article that is a must-read for anyone interested in this topic, which should be us all.
The Most Important Thing You Don't Know About "Peak Oil" by Steven Lagavulin lays out a scenario as to how the crisis could manifest.
There's an aspect to the concept of "Peak Oil" which I don't believe is sufficiently grasped by people following the subject. It's the understanding that the most dangerous aspect we face is not really the state of the resource itself--the actual "Peak" dates or depletion rates, or any of the physical realities of oil supply/demand--but rather the reaction in the oil markets upon realization that the issue no longer [is] even important.
More below.
Lagavulin continues:
(snip)
. . .regardless of whether Peak Oil has any reality to it or not, what is important now is that the powers of the world are absolutely steering the course of the planet by this star. As such, the events now destined to unfold over just the next year or so are acquiring a momentum of their own, setting us on an intractable course of global conflict and warfare. This is the reality, as I see it, of what is happening right now, regardless of when any theoretical "Peak Year" may have been reached.
Should the oil markets themselves begin to 'connect these dots', then all our lives are going to be impacted violently and immediately. (snip) Because as soon as it is recognized that for all practical purposes the situation is already upon us, then a fast and vicious "resource grab" will be initiated. The price of oil in the markets will begin to rise dramatically. This will initiate a circular hedging / hording mentality in large end-users, governments, and multi-nationals. This will then have a myriad of devastating effects, but all average Joe Consumer is going to notice is that the price at the pump will experience a brief and dramatic blip upward, gas lines will form for a short time at the corner-stations, and then suddenly the corner gas-stations will go dry altogether...perhaps getting a few sporadic deliveries, but more likely simply for good. Gasoline will not be available to individual drivers, as precedence is given to heating oil, critical government and commercial uses, public transportation, transport of food and goods, etc. How the situation unfolds after that you can imagine just as well as I....
(snip)
In truth, nothing about the future can be known with certainty. What I am trying to do is to communicate my own recognition that the time for action is now upon us. We can no longer debate who's right and who's wrong. We can no longer hope for what the next election might bring. We can't assume that somehow a 'gradual transition' will be effected, because it is never going to happen that way. Certainly there will be efforts among the global powers to calm the markets in various ways...perhaps some of these will ameliorate matters. But ultimately, in our own lives, just as on the world stage, whomever does not act now will soon find they have already lost the game.
So what action should be taken? What can anyone do to confront the course of events? Sadly, I don't have the answers. But I am trying to work things out. I believe that the only hope of changing things is by building a consensus among people. This needs to happen very quickly, and it will only happen when people are no longer content to just grumble about things, comfortable in the assumption that nothing is going to happen...at least, not anytime soon...and certainly not today....
One comment to the original post suggests Langevin is too optimistic in assuming that governments will be able to respond, because there is no contingency plan. Given that BushCo does know what's going on, it seems that their contingency plans concern only themselves.
Related to timing of events, here is a quote from Stephen Leeb's newsletter (which is behind a subscription wall):
We continue to believe that oil could fall further, perhaps to the mid or low 40s. The reason is that OPEC is pumping at close to 100 percent capacity at a time when worldwide demand is at a seasonal low. It is a gambit designed to change psychology in the oil market prior to a sharp pick-up in demand during the third and fourth quarter.
In other words, during the second half of the year OPEC is hoping to have enough credibility to talk oil down. We hope it works, but ultimately think economics will prevail. The stark fact is that by the fourth quarter the world's demand for oil will far exceed potential supply, which could set the stage for dramatically higher prices.
Suggests to me that when the peak travel season hits, probably in July, that could trigger a crisis - if it's not already here by then.
So, what does that mean, to help avoid the worst case scenario by building a consensus among people, when the threat's hitting the mainstream media will likely bring the crisis on? Sounds to me like we're between a rock and a hard place. Ideas?